The Dominion's capture of DS9

[SteveK]

If the Federation and Klingon fleet that destroyed the Cardascien shipyard had instead been diverted to defend DS9, do you think the Federation could have defeated the Dominion fleet?

I tend to think that they could have: the Dominion was surprised at the effectiveness of the Federation's shields and it took significant effort to capture just the station, a station and a fleet providing mutual support would have been a very tough nut to crack. Instead, the Federation deliberately divided their combat power and made themselves much more vulnerable in the process. I don't think the shipyard was worth it.

Further, I think it would've been a great propaganda move for the first major battle of the war to end in a Dominion defeat.

[Captain Seafort]

At the time, holding on to DS9 was not a strategic priority - with the wormhole mined there was no point to it. The shipyard, on the other hand, was a strategic priority. By knocking out that the alliance was able to reduce the Dominion's shipbuilding capability which, given the oft-mentioned superiority of Dominion shipbuilding capacity over that of the alliance, was very important. It's true that sending the fleet to reinforce DS9 would probably have allowed the alliance to hold onto the station, and to inflict heavier casalties on the Dominion. It would not, however, have manifestly improved their strategic position, whereas the continued operation of the shipyard would have allowed the Dominion to replace its losses much more quickly, and come back to DS9 in greater strength. Given the dire situation of the allies in the first few months of the war, an even stronger Dominion fleet would probably have spelled defeat.

[Graham Kennedy]

Hard to judge. We don't know how heavily defended those shipyards were or how powerful a force attacked them. If we assume it was, say, 200 strong, then I think it might have turned the tide of that particular battle, yes.

However, nothing happens in a vacuum. If Starfleet had diverted a couple of hundred ships to DS9, it's entirely possible that the Dominion would have found out about it and simply sent additional forces of their own; end result being that Starfleet still lose the station, but lose a fleet too. Remember at the outset of the war the Dominion had the upper hand all around, so if they chose to take the station, then they were going to be able to do so.

[Captain Seafort]

However, nothing happens in a vacuum. If Starfleet had diverted a couple of hundred ships to DS9, it's entirely possible that the Dominion would have found out about it and simply sent additional forces of their own; end result being that Starfleet still lose the station, but lose a fleet too. Remember at the outset of the war the Dominion had the upper hand all around, so if they chose to take the station, then they were going to be able to do so.

Absolutely. My post was based on a simple exchange of DS9 for the shipyards, which would have been a decidedly poor exchange for the alliance. If as you suggest the Dominion had diverted more ships to the station, the alliance could very easilly have lost the station and a fleet without significant gain. "Valiant" tells us that the move against DS9 was only a small part of a general offensive, so the Dominion may not have had any additional ships available, and would thus have had to weaken their overall effort in order to take the station. Nonetheless, the damage inflicted on the alliance in a pitched battle, along with the continued existence of the shipyards, would have tilted the balance back in their favour.

[Graham Kennedy]

At the outset of the war DS9 wasn't really worth keeping, IMO. Its only value lay in its position at the entrance to the wormhole, but once the minefield was up that value became moot. So why fight to defend it?

[Captain Seafort]

My point exactly.

[Sionnach Glic]

Agreed. There would be little benefit in fighting for it.

[Blackstar the Chakat]

At the outset of the war DS9 wasn't really worth keeping, IMO. Its only value lay in its position at the entrance to the wormhole, but once the minefield was up that value became moot. So why fight to defend it?

Well, the dominion did have time to take down the minefield. If it wasn't for a little dues ex machina the dominion fleet would've come through the wormhole and wipe the floor with the Federation and Klingons.

[Captain Seafort]

Well, the dominion did have time to take down the minefield. If it wasn't for a little dues ex machina the dominion fleet would've come through the wormhole and wipe the floor with the Federation and Klingons.

If it hadn't been for the alliance fleet taking out the shipyard I doubt those reinforcements would have been needed.

[SteveK]

At the time, holding on to DS9 was not a strategic priority - with the wormhole mined there was no point to it.

At the time of the battle the wormhole was still in the process of being mined--the Dominion actually came quite close to preventing the minefield's completion.

The shipyard, on the other hand, was a strategic priority. By knocking out that the alliance was able to reduce the Dominion's shipbuilding capability which, given the oft-mentioned superiority of Dominion shipbuilding capacity over that of the alliance, was very important.

True.

However, nothing happens in a vacuum. If Starfleet had diverted a couple of hundred ships to DS9, it's entirely possible that the Dominion would have found out about it and simply sent additional forces of their own; end result being that Starfleet still lose the station, but lose a fleet too.

That begs the question then: Why didn't the Dominion defend the shipyard? If we work under the assumption that the Fleet and DS9 are more powerful together than apart, then a force capable of defeating both simultaneously would be able to divide and defeat both seperately.

Also, recall that when Dukat was gloating over his triumphant return to the station, Weyoun counted (iirc) the shipyard as part of the high cost of capturing it. Implying that forces were diverted from the defense of the shipyard to the capture of the station.

At the outset of the war DS9 wasn't really worth keeping, IMO. Its only value lay in its position at the entrance to the wormhole, but once the minefield was up that value became moot. So why fight to defend it?

Its principle (post mining and assuming the minefield couldn't be removed) value is that it is a heavily fortified position that the Dominion wants to capture. Properly reinforced, the Dominion would need to use more ships in any attempt to capture it than the Federation would need to use to defend it.

[Graham Kennedy]

Well, the dominion did have time to take down the minefield. If it wasn't for a little dues ex machina the dominion fleet would've come through the wormhole and wipe the floor with the Federation and Klingons.

But the Federation didn't know they could do that at the time. As far as they were concerned, the minefield was safe so DS9 was just a station next to a useless wormhole.

[Teaos]

It was best to knock out the fleet yard but they should have also sent a strike group of fast ships to help defend the staion. Attacking a station sitting there is easy, but if your being pounded by ships it adds a whole new element to the battle. They would still lose the station but then the strike group could run away after causing more casualties.

[Bryan Moore]

Part of me is surprised the Federation didn't just order the complete evacuation (even of all the Bajorans) and destroyed the station completely. Would have made the wormhole that much more inapprochable. But then, we wouldn't have a series.

[Mark]

Part of me is surprised the Federation didn't just order the complete evacuation (even of all the Bajorans) and destroyed the station completely. Would have made the wormhole that much more inapprochable. But then, we wouldn't have a series.

I thought of that, but I realized the station belongs to Bajor, not Starfleet. The Federation would have no right whatsoever to destroy DS9 to deny it to the Dominion, ESPECIALLY after the Bajoran government signed a non agression pact with the Dominion.

[Mikey]

We had at one point discussed that at length, and the general consensus was similar to Mark's idea. Why the Feds didn't bug out a little sooner seems to be a little touch of good samaritan syndrome; even though the Bajorans had signed a non-aggression pact, the Feds no doubt stuck around to prove their concern for the Bajorans.