Re: Random hypothetical
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:45 am
So, Rule Britannia then?
Which is actually the entire problem. You're a post industrial society with a knowledge and skill base that reflects that. Lemme put it to you this way. Your local powerplant, do you think it's all locally built? It's not. In fact I've had to deal with, "Buy American," initiatives before and it always came down to this, "We can buy American, or we can keep the plant running. Pick one." It's almost impossible to secure domestic boiler tube anymore. Most boiler tube is made in South Korea, France, Germany, or China (which is all shit). Controls? German. Flow sensor? Italian. Pressure switch? Canadian. PLC? Korean. Turbine? German. And I can go on, and on, and on but that's just end parts. That's not even getting into how those are built, and by who, and where. What happens when you blow a tube that you don't have parts on hand to replace anymore? You can scavenge, sure, but boiler tube isn't permanent. It's rusting, degrading. In about two years all boiler tube stocks that aren't stainless steel are going to be useless. You have to start making new. Well, the foundries are in other countries. Even if you did have people who knew how to operate them you still have to provide them with power (in another country) massive amounts of it, and raw materials (likewise in another country) to get ready to make the tube. And that's just dumb steel tubing. Hell, most sensitive electronic parts that make up a power plant aren't going to last more than a year or two unattended. The plants that make them, even less so. The modern power industry can survive because while a plant might only need to buy one or two pressure switches a year, once you combine every plant together you've got enough demand for pressure switches to keep a couple manufacturers in business making them. That's how it goes for everything in these plants. The plants are able to stay running because of a massive support infrastructure. Remove the infrastructure and you can't keep them running. Even scavenging will only keep you in business for a couple more years. Now change "power plant" to canning factory, or textile mill, or pill factory, or whatever.The UK isn't some little backwards nation. There's sixty million people here in a modern industrial / post industrial society.
We have refineries.Tyyr wrote:Interestingly it turns out you're a net oil exporter but only by a very slim margin. You export only about 100,000 barrels a day. So bravo. I'm still not sure about refining capacity but You're still fucked.
Again, this is something that's perfectly doable. Plenty of trucks, more than enough fuel for them, and all of Europe is within a couple of days or so travel. And that's assuming roads; get the railways going and you can move far larger quantities far faster.Again, look at food. How long can you get by on just what's in your house right now? How much food is actually at your local grocery store? I've worked in a grocery store before. There is next to nothing (comparatively) "in the back". How many people use that grocery store? How long do you think it'll take them to clear it out?
Again, the problem is that you've got about 72 hours between normal and complete collapse of society. "We'll scavenge France." You're actually better off than I thought you would be. The problem still comes down to time. With no fore warning you're looking at a good 24 hours of everyone standing around, thumbs up asses trying to figure out what the hell happened. After that you've got to start getting trucks together to move on your plan. And it's not just trucks, you've got to get guys to move the goods from the stores/warehouses into the trucks. Guys who are at the moment scared and worried for their families. You've gotta truck into France (thank you Chunnel!) find stores, empty them into the trucks, and head back, distribute the food, and turn around. And the problem is each trip is longer than the last. Plus, you've got the same situation everywhere, 72 hours of food is about all they've got on hand. You've got serious issues with recognizing the problem, organizing the solution, physically getting to food stores in France, and working out distribution before your populace realizes there's an issue, which they will pretty quickly when all the restaurants close up (even less food on hand than most stores) and the markets are getting wiped out by people more on the ball than they. When they look in the pantry and a can of peas, two cans of soup, and a bag of crackers is the sum total of all food they currently have or have means to get, they're going to get desperate, FAST.
There are plenty of pharmaceutical manufacturers in the UK.Medicines, you're going to have more on hand than food, but every pill, every dose is quickly going to become precious. While you will no doubt start to pillage pharmacies and hospitals you're going to still be having to scavenge, not produce.
And I'm not suggesting that life in the UK would suddenly become a utopian dream, or even that it would continue blithely on as it does now. But I do believe that we'd manage, no doubt with some pain along the way, but we'd continue on and maintain a society that's a variation on what a modern industrial / post industrial society is today.And there's there's the issue at it all. Production. The means of production are scattered across the globe with massive amounts of tribal knowledge and experience being wiped out.
Actually it was until recently but no, it's not. But for instance, the UK does manufacture wind turbines, and large numbers of them. So would we have as much power as we do now? In the longer term, perhaps not. But nor would we be without it.Which is actually the entire problem. You're a post industrial society with a knowledge and skill base that reflects that. Lemme put it to you this way. Your local powerplant, do you think it's all locally built? It's not.