Fidel Castro steps down

[Sionnach Glic]

Castro stepping down as Cuba's leader

HAVANA (Reuters) - Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro said on Tuesday that he will not return to lead the country as president, retiring as head of state 49 years after he seized power in an armed revolution.

Castro, 81, said in a statement to the country that he would not seek a new presidential term when the National Assembly meets on February 24.

"To my dear compatriots, who gave me the immense honor in recent days of electing me a member of parliament ... I communicate to you that I will not aspire to or accept -- I repeat not aspire to or accept -- the positions of President of Council of State and Commander in Chief," Castro said in the statement published on the Web site of the Communist Party's Granma newspaper.

The National Assembly or legislature is expected to nominate his brother and designated successor Raul Castro as president in place of Castro, who has not appeared in public for almost 19 months after being stricken by an undisclosed illness.

His retirement drew the curtain on a political career that spanned the Cold War and survived U.S. enmity, CIA assassination attempts and the demise of Soviet Communism.

A charismatic leader famous for his long speeches delivered in his green military fatigues, Castro is admired in the Third World for standing up to the United States but considered by his opponents a tyrant who suppressed freedom.

(Reporting by Anthony Boadle, Editing by Eric Walsh)

'Tis the end of an era. I'm fairly worried about the future of Cuba. Castro wasn't all that bad, as far as communist dictators go, and the last thing we need is Kim Jong Il j.r. taking his place.

[Captain Seafort]

That's pretty unusual - a dictator's tenure ending not because of his death or deposition, but of his own free will. Off the top of my head I can only think of Gorbachev and Pinochet who have done that.

It also significantly reduces the chances of Cuba going to pieces after his death - Raul now gets a chance to settle himself in power with Casto still around to provide advice and public support.

[Blackstar the Chakat]

Wow, a dictator who willingly gives up power. That's a once in a lifetime event.

Hopefully his replacement will be more US friendly, but I think we'll have to wait a generation or two for that to happen.

[Sionnach Glic]

Uh, it wasn't a case of Castro being unfriendly towards the US, it was a case of the US trying to topple him at every possible opertunity.

[Blackstar the Chakat]

Uh, it wasn't a case of Castro being unfriendly towards the US, it was a case of the US trying to topple him at every possible opertunity.

I thought that was Saddam?

[Tsukiyumi]

No, I thought that was Ghaddafi...

[Sionnach Glic]

I thought that was Saddam?

That applies to both, the US has a history of this sort of thing. Except the US didn't sell Castro weapons.

[Monroe]

I remember in class we had a debate on what would happen once Cuba goes Castro-less. I was the only one who said China may move in and put Cuba in their sphere of influence. I still think that's a scary likelyhood.

[Sionnach Glic]

What do you mean by 'move in'?
If you mean an invasion, that ain't gonna happen. It's too far away, and China would gain virtualy no advantage in having it. Also, there's the possibility of getting into a conflict with the US if they try to take it over. It'll just be the Cuban Missile Crisis MK2.

[Blackstar the Chakat]

If China controls Cuba they could set up a heavily supplied base there and be able to strike the east and west coasts of the US at any time. Before you know it we'd have WWIII on our hands.

Not likely IMO, but possible.

[Sionnach Glic]

Dude, that's never going to happen.

1) China would never get their hands on Cuba in the first place.

2) China would never start a war with the US.
Their military is no match for the US in a conventional war. Any base on Cuba would be taken at the start of the war, before they could launch any effective invasion, and the war would just move east from there.
Also, China is no match for the US in a nuclear war, either. From what I remember, China doesn't have that many nukes with any useful range on them. China could probably wipe out a dozen or so cities in the US, along both east and west coasts. However, the entire country of China would be turned into a glowing radiocative crater. Unless the Chinese government goes crazy, they ain't going to start a war.

Also, any attempt to get nukes onto Cuba would probably be opposed by the US. Like I said earlier, it'll be the Cuban Missile Crisis MK2.

[Aaron]

If China controls Cuba they could set up a heavily supplied base there and be able to strike the east and west coasts of the US at any time. Before you know it we'd have WWIII on our hands.

Not likely IMO, but possible.

With what exactly? They don't have the means to reach the US from China and won't for the forseeable future. And anything they setup in Cuba could be destroyed at will by the US. All they really have is their tiny ICBM force, which if they use would mean the total destruction of their country. And given that ABM is coming online they could expect to lose the majority of the warheads launched.

[Blackstar the Chakat]

Exactly, no one would expect it. It would be like if England invaded Europe

[Captain Seafort]

Which part of "they don't have the means to reach the US from China" was unclear? The Chinese just about have the amphibious capability to invade Taiwan, if they got lucky. They have nothing even approaching the capability to launch a trans-Pacific invasion.

As for the nuclear strike option, the result would be the obliteration of China, regardless of casualties on the US side - China's leaders know this, and are neither stupid nor suicidal.

[Sionnach Glic]

Exactly, no one would expect it. It would be like if England invaded Europe

No, it would be more like Korea invading the US.
It can't happen. It's just that simple. As Seafort pointed out, they couldn't even take over an island off their coast if they tried.