(hypothetical) China invades Taiwan

Sionnach Glic · Post by **Sionnach Glic** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:53 am

Okay, let's say that China decides to invade Taiwan. What do you think would happen?

Post by **Teaos** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:17 pm

America would bitch and moan. The UN would say they disaprove of these actions. People would talk about santions.

But nothing would happen. No one has the bulls to take them on.

Worst case senario is another mini cold war.

Sionnach Glic · Post by **Sionnach Glic** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:18 pm

Yeah, that seems pretty likely. The US, as of now, simply can't get into a major war with their largest trading partner from what I see.

Post by **Graham Kennedy** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:25 pm

Taiwan would win.

Sionnach Glic · Post by **Sionnach Glic** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:32 pm

I think there's a limit to just how much of a help superior technology will help when you're massively outnumbered.

sunnyside · Post by **sunnyside** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:32 pm

Taiwan has impressive forces for it's size but I wouldn't put a bet on it winning. However the US might get involved. Our ground troops our in Iraq. Our Bombers fly out of America and land back there. So they could go after Chinese targets. Also a fair chunk of our navy could move out.

Keeping another power from crossing a stretch of water is much easier than fighting a ground battle.

However fundamentally a lot of the weapons systems the US (and China too) posses have not been tested out in real peer combat. It's hard to say how things would shake out.

Sionnach Glic · Post by **Sionnach Glic** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:38 pm

Keeping another power from crossing a stretch of water is much easier than fighting a ground battle.

Well, the scenario was that China had already gotten troops onto Taiwan. So a ground battle is more than likely should the US get involved.

Anyone know just how many troops the US can afford to deploy, without pulling troops from Iraq or Afghanistan?

sunnyside · Post by **sunnyside** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:59 pm

Rochey wrote:
Keeping another power from crossing a stretch of water is much easier than fighting a ground battle.
Well, the scenario was that China had already gotten troops onto Taiwan. So a ground battle is more than likely should the US get involved.

Anyone know just how many troops the US can afford to deploy, without pulling troops from Iraq or Afghanistan?

That's not neccesarily a fair assumption. Taiwan buys about as much American and local defensive military tech as they can. They might be able to hold out long enough.

Much depends on that. IF the CHinese start landing thousands of troops the US and UN might not do anythng. But until they get people on the ground they're vulnverable.

Sionnach Glic · Post by **Sionnach Glic** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 4:06 pm

True, but does Taiwan have enough military forces to stop China getting a foothold on the island?

Post by **Captain Seafort** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 4:31 pm

No. The Taiwanese strategic plan in the event of a Chinese invasion is "yell for the Americans". In the past they've had enough firepower, coupled with non-existent Chinese amphibious capabilities, to have a chance of fighting off the initial wave. Now though, with massively improved Chinese sealift capacity, hundreds of short-range missiles stacked up opposite Taiwan, and Taiwanese kit approaching block-obsolescence while the Chinese continually improve, the balance has shifted the other way.

Post by **Graham Kennedy** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:05 pm

Numbers would not help the Chinese that much.

Few realise that there is a stretch of water 100 miles wide between China and Taiwan. The Chinese have enough amphibious capability to put around 30,000 - 40,000 troops onto the beaches. And that's assuming they all get there in one piece, which isn't likely given a Taiwanese Navy that includes stealthy frigates and submarines as well as assorted other surface combatants.

Taiwan's Army numbers 400,000 men. The beaches on the side of the island facing China are fortified to a level that Normandy could only dream of in WW II, and there are mountains right behind them.

Taking them on would require on the order of a million men, minimum. The Chinese don't have the seaborne logistics to even supply that many across that stretch of water, let alone keep them fighting.

The Taiwan airforce has 200+ F-16 fighters (actually a mix of F-16 and a local derivative). The Chinese would be taking them on from 100+ miles away, flying over water both ways, while the Taiwanese would be fighting largely over their own skies. That means heavy drop tanks for the Chinese, limiting speed and agility, and nice light AA armament only for the Taiwanese. As with the Battle of Britain, it also means any Chinese pilot who ejects or crashes is lost, any Taiwanese who does is rescued. Oh, and the Taiwanese get to fight over their own SAM defences, which include batteries of Patriot missiles.

And the Taiwanese also have anti ship missiles - US Harpoons - for those F-16s to carry by the way. More fun for the invasion force.

And if the US became involved - which they have given every indication that they would - then the Chinese wouldn't even have a prayer. One carrier group would make it impossible for any force to cross the straights.

The odd thing is, China is modernising it's military but they aren't building their amphibious capability up at all. Which means no matter what they say... they don't actually plan on invading Taiwan, under any circumstances.

sunnyside · Post by **sunnyside** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:14 pm

Still we don't know how well missile system A will do against system B. The Chinese might be planning to blow up most of their defenses, go for airsuperiority, and then move in ground troops in helicopters and para drops until they can secure an airfield.

Still stuff like that takes time. And if the US does decide to get involved time is really of the essense.

Post by **Graham Kennedy** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:19 pm

"Blow up their defences" with what? The Chinese airforce would get chewed up badly attacking Taiwan. Personally I doubt they would achieve air superiority at all, let alone quickly.

They have 800 long range missiles... which is simply not even close to enough to badly damage the Taiwanese military.

Troop carrying helicopters that operate over those distances do not exist, and helicopters are an absolute sitting duck for fighters anyway. And an airborne assault that isn't QUICKLY followed up with proper ground troops and supply lines is a real good way to get all your paratroopers killed.

China simply does not have the military capacity to invade Taiwan.

sunnyside · Post by **sunnyside** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:44 pm

Many helicopters can cover that range. Black Hawks have a range of over 1,000 miles. But many helicopters even commercially can get ~300. (actually we sold them some Black Hawks anyway, but they have their own models that can handle extra fuel).

And the Chinese do outnumber them in the air with fighter aircraft. I don't know what upgrades either side does but, depending who has what avionics, not as good of ones on average. But still they're developing and the demos the US did with India show that multiple inferior fighters can win again superior fighters if they have good missiles.

Still it's really hard to say. Since gen 3 fighters it often comes down to the avionics which are, to us at least, an unknown I believe.

Post by **Captain Seafort** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:53 pm

The BBC has a good article about the shifting strategic balance across the Taiwan straights here. Its a few years old, but all I've hear since implies that the imbalance has grown worse, with the Chinese building warships like it's going out of fashion, and massively increasing their amphibious potential.