Post Dominion War Projection

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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Captain Seafort » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:58 pm

Deepcrush wrote:The longest standing leader of the Empire in history, leading it to the height of its power, solidifying its alliance with the Federation and end two generations of conflict. Not much of a problem there.


Who was assassinated shortly after the Romulans started showing renewed interest in galactic affairs.

Possible, however its just as possible that the Federation will aid the recovery of the KE.


Sloan, who seemed to have his head screwed on much better than the somewhat idealistic Starfleet bunch (even the Sisko) didn't think so.

There's a lot of possible outcomes, however the ten year is the only canon statement so we should stick to it as much as possible.


Agreed in principle, but I think you also have to take into account the fact that the Klingons suffered much more heavily in taking on the combined DCB fleet alone than they would have as part of an FKR fleet against just the Dominion and the Cardies.

The only way to improve industrial capacity would be ground invasion.


Yep.

Neither the UFP or RSN have the forces required to begin invading KE worlds.


The UFP is showing definite improvement, but I agree that they still have a lot of work to do. This will affect their ability to do what needs to be done, not the underlying requirement.

As for the Romulans we know precisely squat about their ground capabilities, so you've got nothing to base your assessment on.

Its not the adjustment that would be the problem, but the time required to deploy across the whole of the UFP/RSE border. In most wars the greatest trouble isn't the battle but deploying for it, this issue wouldn't be any different.


They're already deployed - the only problem would be having to go in alone rather than as part of joint FKR fleets.

Worf pointed out that Gowron was wasting ships to try and discredit Martok, not that Gowron had destroyed the KDF as an effective fighting force.


The Klingons would have been on their knees even before those losses, per Sloan. While Worf's specific intention was to insult Gowron's honour, the fact that he was causing the KDF to sustain unsustainable losses stands

That the RSN was the fleet in need of help at the end of the war and not the KDF speaks volumes.


The Romulan element of the fleet in that action was taking the brunt of the fight. That's not the same as suffering unsustainable losses on a strategic level.

Important not so much but no doubt helpful. Where numbers would likely play would be on the RSNs attempt to advance from system to system. The KE has a class of ship that can be built in fantastic numbers not just in shipyards in orbit but planet side as well. Given the weakness of RSN shields, having to advance against cheap ships that may spend much of the day ramming you as well as orbital defenses which the Klingons seemed fond of really puts a harsh turn on any invasion attempt.


I agree that the Klingons' orbital defences would be the major threat to any advance, but their inability to take advantage of any stalled advance to launch a major counteroffensive swings the advantage back towards the Romulans. It's like Cassino - Kesselring stopped 15th Army Group's advance dead, but he didn't have anything approaching the forces needed to counterattack and throw them out of Italy.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Deepcrush » Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:27 pm

Captain Seafort wrote:Who was assassinated shortly after the Romulans started showing renewed interest in galactic affairs.


Shortly? You must see a twenty year gap in different measure then I do. The Romulans were clearly working through agents prior to the Khitomer Massacre. The Duras having been already in their pocket prior to the attack.

Captain Seafort wrote:Sloan, who seemed to have his head screwed on much better than the somewhat idealistic Starfleet bunch (even the Sisko) didn't think so.


Really? When did he say that the UFP wasn't going to aid the KE.

Captain Seafort wrote:Agreed in principle, but I think you also have to take into account the fact that the Klingons suffered much more heavily in taking on the combined DCB fleet alone than they would have as part of an FKR fleet against just the Dominion and the Cardies.


No doubt they did, but under better leadership there's no doubt that the recovery of the Empire would be far better handled. The two issues likely balance out. I don't believe Martok can work wonders but he's got a solid head on his shoulders and a very eager population.

Captain Seafort wrote:The UFP is showing definite improvement, but I agree that they still have a lot of work to do. This will affect their ability to do what needs to be done, not the underlying requirement.

As for the Romulans we know precisely squat about their ground capabilities, so you've got nothing to base your assessment on.


That they have in the past had chances to engage on the ground and didn't do so tells us a great deal about their willingness to face the Klingons on the ground. While we can state direct issues we can still take rough estimates. The KDFs ability to rally troops in the million+ range as though of little trouble vs the RSE's deployment of a few thousand. Also that the KDF would be on the defensive which is a great advantage for them.

Captain Seafort wrote:They're already deployed - the only problem would be having to go in alone rather than as part of joint FKR fleets.


Deployment when you make up a third of the line vs deployment when you become the whole of the line are two very different things. The amount of space you have to cover is then tripled, which means your deployment has to be revised. 1500 ships in a week, when it takes several weeks to transit the whole of the battle lines is in no possible way the whole of the KDF. Ships in defense of the KE itself, ships in transit, ships under repair or refit unable to be fielded, ships under construction, ships already in the field having to return to under go refit to then be redeployed.

Captain Seafort wrote:The Klingons would have been on their knees even before those losses, per Sloan. While Worf's specific intention was to insult Gowron's honour, the fact that he was causing the KDF to sustain unsustainable losses stands


Again, I never heard Sloan state the Klingons would be on their knees. That they finished the war so strongly pretty well shoots that nonsense down rather well.

Captain Seafort wrote:The Romulan element of the fleet in that action was taking the brunt of the fight. That's not the same as suffering unsustainable losses on a strategic level.


Since the battle scenes showed the UFP and KDF leading the charge with the RSE's D'Ds largely behind them, saying they took the brunt of anything without reason is just ignorance. The first losses we see in each battle are Klingon and Federation.

Captain Seafort wrote:I agree that the Klingons' orbital defences would be the major threat to any advance, but their inability to take advantage of any stalled advance to launch a major counteroffensive swings the advantage back towards the Romulans. It's like Cassino - Kesselring stopped 15th Army Group's advance dead, but he didn't have anything approaching the forces needed to counterattack and throw them out of Italy.


Nothing like Cassino, Cassino was a direct advance by two forces on level ground. Advancing into KE space wouldn't be anything like that. Its not an even advance, its far more like Kursk. A multiple layering of defenses starting with warships then ODPs and planet based defenses followed by the KDF ground forces followed further by the Klingon population itself. Even if the RSE manages to secure a grounding they will still just be stuck in a bloody trade off of fighting that will simply cost lives and material with no possible gain. If they bypass the planet then they leave it to continue producing materials for the KDF. If they just glass the planet they ensure the UFPs entry to the war. The best the RSE could hope for in a case like this is to force stalemates on each world they cross just to keep them from being able to cut the RSN's line of supply.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Captain Seafort » Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:06 pm

Deepcrush wrote:Shortly? You must see a twenty year gap in different measure then I do.


I'm talking about their re-emergence in "The Neutral Zone".

Really? When did he say that the UFP wasn't going to aid the KE...

Again, I never heard Sloan state the Klingons would be on their knees.


When he specifically gave the Klingons' weakness, not the Fed-Klingon alliance, as a reason they wouldn't be involved in the post-war power struggle. He completely disregarded them from his assessment.

No doubt they did, but under better leadership there's no doubt that the recovery of the Empire would be far better handled. The two issues likely balance out. I don't believe Martok can work wonders but he's got a solid head on his shoulders and a very eager population.


Assuming he can bring the council with him. He's still that boy from the Ketha lowlands so far as the great houses are concerned, and their opposition will cause problems.

That they have in the past had chances to engage on the ground and didn't do so tells us a great deal about their willingness to face the Klingons on the ground.


Source please.

While we can state direct issues we can still take rough estimates. The KDFs ability to rally troops in the million+ range as though of little trouble vs the RSE's deployment of a few thousand. Also that the KDF would be on the defensive which is a great advantage for them.


I agree that being on the defensive is an advantage, but you're massively underestimating the Romulans if you think they're only going to send in a few thousand - they only did that against Vulcan because of the nature of the operation. It was a covert insertion to seize the reins of power, not a full-scale invasion.

Deployment when you make up a third of the line vs deployment when you become the whole of the line are two very different things. The amount of space you have to cover is then tripled, which means your deployment has to be revised. 1500 ships in a week, when it takes several weeks to transit the whole of the battle lines is in no possible way the whole of the KDF. Ships in defense of the KE itself, ships in transit, ships under repair or refit unable to be fielded, ships under construction, ships already in the field having to return to under go refit to then be redeployed.


Nonetheless, they were deployed along the whole length of the line, not just a section of it as national contingents were in the world wars. Redeploying to cover the Fed-Romulan withdrawal would have been a simple affair. As for the rest of the fleet, so what? Normal rotation would have continued as best it could, albeit ships that would otherwise have been withdrawn for repair would have to be kept in the line much longer.

Nothing like Cassino, Cassino was a direct advance by two forces on level ground.


Are you stupid or ignorant? Cassino was the centre of gravity of the entire Gustav Line - massive pre-prepared fortifications in mountainous terrain. You'd be hard-pressed to find a strong defensive position in the entire western theatre.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Deepcrush » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:22 pm

Captain Seafort wrote:I'm talking about their re-emergence in "The Neutral Zone".


While that was their big public outing, it was clearly not when they returned to the galactic stage.

Captain Seafort wrote:When he specifically gave the Klingons' weakness, not the Fed-Klingon alliance, as a reason they wouldn't be involved in the post-war power struggle. He completely disregarded them from his assessment.


That however doesn't equal "Klingons on their knees" since it could also be his attempt to justify his actions to Bashir.

Captain Seafort wrote:Assuming he can bring the council with him. He's still that boy from the Ketha lowlands so far as the great houses are concerned, and their opposition will cause problems.


No, he was a boy from the Ketha lowlands, but under Gowron he has built his own great house and he also bares the support of the KDF. Also remember that the Great Houses will be as weakened as the Empire is as a whole. The table is heavily stacked in his favor.

Captain Seafort wrote:Source please.


The attack on Khitomer and Narendra being prime examples. Both times the Romulans have had the chance to take Klingon ground and held the superior position in orbit until relief could arrive and yet both times the RSE choose not to stay but to retreat. Yet both of these would have given the RSE a strategic advantage over the KE by putting them within striking distance of the Klingon interior. With this, there is only one assumption that can be made and that is that the RSE believes itself incapable of holding Klingon territory. This would be made even more difficult by the no doubt increased defenses that would have been built up during the Dominion War.

Captain Seafort wrote:I agree that being on the defensive is an advantage, but you're massively underestimating the Romulans if you think they're only going to send in a few thousand - they only did that against Vulcan because of the nature of the operation. It was a covert insertion to seize the reins of power, not a full-scale invasion.


But as I stated above added to the matter that the whole reason that they did so was they obviously didn't believe taking the planet by direct force was possible and hoped for a stalemate with a weak hearted federation. You won't get the same response from the Klingons. With the Klingons you'll be facing whole planetary populations, even if they lose ten Klingons per Romulan killed the Romulans would have to absorb billions of deaths by the end of such a conflict. Which is something we've seen time and again they aren't truly willing to do on their own. Even when the FKR alliance felt they had the advantage in the Dominion War the RSE still voted to fortify rather then risk the attack.

Captain Seafort wrote:Are you stupid or ignorant? Cassino was the centre of gravity of the entire Gustav Line - massive pre-prepared fortifications in mountainous terrain. You'd be hard-pressed to find a strong defensive position in the entire western theatre.


Neither, you're missing the point to the battles. Cassino was a fixed defense where the whole point was simply to bleed troops from both sides. However as even you know, the key to defeating the KE would be a battle of resources. Which was Kursk, the fight to keep supplies from one side and to feed another. That is what the RSE will have to focus on, they can't risk being drawn into a war of attrition against the KE. That's a no win situation for them, if a win were possible under that standing they would have done so after Praxis.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby McAvoy » Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:51 am

Klingons and the Federation I believe are blood brothers by the end of 2375. The Federation will help the Klingons from the Romulans, though if on the other foot it may be different.

I have a hard time believing in Sloan's future anyway. It could be earlier or later for all we know or never.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Deepcrush » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:55 pm

Sloan's prediction has a strong base to it. The KDF did suffer heavily and the KE as a whole isn't the strongest of economies. While they aren't likely to go through the major ups and downs of others, they also aren't likely to see any kind of rapid financial growth.

The key to things, as you first pointed to, is how they would respond to aggression against its only ally.
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Re: Post Dominion War Projection

Postby Captain Seafort » Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:26 pm

Deepcrush wrote:While that was their big public outing, it was clearly not when they returned to the galactic stage.


So what else had they been doing openly? Narendra III and Khitomer were twenty years earlier.

That however doesn't equal "Klingons on their knees" since it could also be his attempt to justify his actions to Bashir.


By the standards of the great powers, yes it does. The UK isn't on its knees either, but how well do you think we'd do if the US decided to invade (ignoring the fact that the US would lose Washington).

No, he was a boy from the Ketha lowlands, but under Gowron he has built his own great house and he also bares the support of the KDF. Also remember that the Great Houses will be as weakened as the Empire is as a whole. The table is heavily stacked in his favor.


He certainly made something of himself, and was very popular with his troops, but he was still an outsider as far as the established powers of the Empire were concerned. He admitted himself that he wasn't a politician, so I think he'd have seriously trouble when what was required of him was politiking and deal-making rather than simply leading his fleet.

The attack on Khitomer and Narendra being prime examples. Both times the Romulans have had the chance to take Klingon ground and held the superior position in orbit until relief could arrive and yet both times the RSE choose not to stay but to retreat. Yet both of these would have given the RSE a strategic advantage over the KE by putting them within striking distance of the Klingon interior. With this, there is only one assumption that can be made and that is that the RSE believes itself incapable of holding Klingon territory. This would be made even more difficult by the no doubt increased defenses that would have been built up during the Dominion War.


Narendra III and Khitomer were raids, not all out offensives, and they were conducted at a time when the Empire was strong enough to take on the Federation and not only survive but, in the long term, beat them. The situation following the war is completely different, with the Empire severely weakened.

But as I stated above added to the matter that the whole reason that they did so was they obviously didn't believe taking the planet by direct force was possible and hoped for a stalemate with a weak hearted federation. You won't get the same response from the Klingons. With the Klingons you'll be facing whole planetary populations, even if they lose ten Klingons per Romulan killed the Romulans would have to absorb billions of deaths by the end of such a conflict. Which is something we've seen time and again they aren't truly willing to do on their own. Even when the FKR alliance felt they had the advantage in the Dominion War the RSE still voted to fortify rather then risk the attack.


The Romulans certainly tend to take a cautious approach to strategy, but against both the Federation and the Dominion they were up against a power of equal or superior strength. That is not the case with the weakened post-war Empire.

Neither, you're missing the point to the battles. Cassino was a fixed defense where the whole point was simply to bleed troops from both sides.


The point of Cassino wasn't to bleed troops at all - it was to keep the allies as far south as possible, to keep the Mediterranean air forces bomber bases away from the heart of the Reich, and to occupy large numbers of allied troops only as a secondary role.

However as even you know, the key to defeating the KE would be a battle of resources. Which was Kursk, the fight to keep supplies from one side and to feed another. That is what the RSE will have to focus on, they can't risk being drawn into a war of attrition against the KE. That's a no win situation for them, if a win were possible under that standing they would have done so after Praxis.


After Praxis they couldn't afford the casualties and risk exposing themselves to the far more militaristic and mobilised Federation taking the opportunity to go after them. So they tried to take advantage of the situation by encouraging the Federation do the legwork, leaving them vulnerable to Romulan attack - Nanculus was part of the war conspiracy, and given the Romulans' track record with messing with other people's internal politics, I wouldn't be too surprised if the RSE was behind the whole thing, using their alliance with the Klingons and their apparently very friendly relations with the Federation to egg them on to war.

After the Dominion War they're in a much better position - the Klingons are far weaker than they even were after Praxis (which only forced them to chose between saving their planet and maintaining their military strength) and the Federation has only had a decade of mobilisation, and suffered badly in the early part of the war, while the Romulans have been catching up with them for decades.
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