Future of home computing

[stitch626]

The 650M has about the same performance than the 550ti, hence a year behind (though still closer than the 500Ms were to the 400s).

Also, putting all that into a desktop can easily be half that of a laptop, along with not needing to buy a new case for a while, nor a power supply if you have a decent one that lasts, nor needing a new monitor for a while.

Laptops simply cannot compete with desktops for power, longevity, and cost of upgrading (and cost period). Yet.


And forget about other mobile devices. They are a compliment, not a supplement, to the home PC. And they likely always will be, simply because anything you can put into a small device to make it powerful can have more of it put into a PC to be even more powerful (as is the case with the new tegra chips).

The graphics performance doesn't really matter to me, nor to most people. It can matter to gamers, I will agree. People clearly don't really care about the issue because more and more people are buying laptops instead of desktops. The figures are quite pronounced.

This is only because more and more people are having desktops built from parts rather than buying them in a store. My brother gets requests all the time to build machines for people, rather than them buying the whole product at an inflated price.

[Tsukiyumi]

There's an interesting question: do the numbers suggesting people are buying less desktops include people buying individual components? Or is it just that people are buying less pre-packaged desktops?

[IanKennedy]

There's an interesting question: do the numbers suggesting people are buying less desktops include people buying individual components? Or is it just that people are buying less pre-packaged desktops?

That would be very hard to say. Less people are buying desktops from people who make them. I found that a long time ago it became cheaper to buy a computer as a whole rather than to buy the individual components. The difference in price simply wasn't worth the effort involved in saving £20. If that has swung back the other way then fine.

[Captain Picard's Hair]

Though stitch's family may be involved in selling home-built systems I doubt the overall numbers of these would make a dent in the business of big brands, or in the laptop-desktop split. People have been able to build systems from the birth of the PC but it hasn't been a significant part of the overall industry. It certainly doesn't account for the huge growth in laptop sales over the last decade; a very significant majority of the systems that come into the shop where I work are laptops. Our own shop offers custom assembled desktops for sale, but we only sell a handful per year including maybe one or two $1000+ gaming rigs.

[Tsukiyumi]

That's odd; ever since the late '90's, I've been able to save anywhere from $100-200 every time building desktops myself, though I did sometimes have wholesale price connections.

[IanKennedy]

It really is. As is the lack of public transit in most of the country.

I'll just sum up my argument here.

1) computer ownership is no longer really optional.

Here it's perfectly viable. I know of no job that you cannot apply in writing. I've been involved employing three people myself over the last year and all had a paper option. Just about everybody is in easy travel distance from a library. Also, unless there's a queue they will not limit you use of the free computers. Public transport here is pretty universal.

2) manufacturers are steering the trends by overproducing and overhyping specific products that are eliminating the low-cost options.

Or in reality they are producing things that people actually want to buy, and people are buying them in vast numbers. I don't believe companies are somehow capable of brainwashing people into buying things they don't want. They could perhaps do it once but not twice. I will also point out that the very first iPad that we have still works and was able to run the most modern software until the very last release of the OS. It is still perfectly functional and usable as it was when we bought it.

3) laptops and tabletberry/whatevers are not at all useful for writing (essays, fiction, etc), gaming, watching movies, and are not easily upgradable, if at all.

I would disagree with that entirely. You can attach a bluetooth keyboard to them and work perfectly well for writing documents. They are very capable for movie watching and gaming (in fact iOS devices are amongst the most widely used mobile gaming platforms available). Sony etc have seen significant losses in sales of their mobile platforms as a result. We recently had an audits from a couple of companies and both auditors used and iPad as their sole form of note taking and writing up the final reports, when asked they said they didn't travel with a laptop any more as the iPad did everything they needed.

I will agree that they are not user upgradable.

4) thanks to 1, 2 and 3 mean that low-income people will be at an even greater disadvantage in the coming years.

Not that I can see. You have already admitted that you can get a laptop for the same cost as a desktop, just that it will not perform quite as fast. Unless speed of applying for a job becomes an issue then I can't see it being a major problem. Another thing that the 'iThingy revolution' has brought is a drastic reduction in the cost of software. In the PC days software would cost 100's of pounds. Microsoft Office for example is still £100+ for even the most basic version. iPad apps on the other hand tend to be of the order of £0 to £10. Pages, for example, Apples work processor with Office compatability costs £13 for Mac and £7 on an iMac.

[IanKennedy]

That's odd; ever since the late '90's, I've been able to save anywhere from $100-200 every time building desktops myself, though I did sometimes have wholesale price connections.

The difference here was about £20, however, to get those prices you had to go into a computer market. Once you factored in travel costs it basically ceased to be worth the effort.

[IanKennedy]

I always find it amusing when people try and tell me about being poor. It's a subject I probably know more about than anyone here. Given you are all living in a property that has an electricity supply and a telephone line. When I was growing up there where certainly extended periods of time when we didn't have either. Being unemployed for nearly five years can do that to you.

And when I was growing up, we lived in a tent , a van, a car, and finally caught a break and got a 21-foot Airstream travel trailer that I lived in until I was 12. I'm not there anymore, but I certainly don't find poverty amusing. Consider yourself lucky that you live in a country that allows poor folks the opportunity to get a free higher education, so that you can move up to where you are now.

I quite clearly didn't say I found poverty amusing. What I find amusing is being told by people that they are in poverty when they are sat at a computer they own in a house with electricity. Actually we don't live in a country that provides free higher education. These days you have to get a loan to pay for your tuition and keep. I will admit that these loans are at a very low interest rate and that they are not repayable until you get a job, however, they are fully repayable.

It's also worth pointing out that I have absolutely no qualifications for the job that I do. I have a sub-degree level qualification in Physics and none in computing. Where I am now I have go to through my own natural abilities. I will openly admit that I went to university for three years and that that got me the interview for my first job. I will also say that at the time I went it was paid for by a free state grant and that it included a little extra for living expenses.

[Tsukiyumi]

Here it's perfectly viable. I know of no job that you cannot apply in writing. I've been involved employing three people myself over the last year and all had a paper option. Just about everybody is in easy travel distance from a library. Also, unless there's a queue they will not limit you use of the free computers. Public transport here is pretty universal.

Interesting. Over here, you can't even apply for Walmart or fast food jobs in writing anymore. Libraries are becoming scarce as funding gets cut. Computer use, as I said, is limited to 1 hour per person per day (or I believe 3 for job searches), and there is literally one bus where I live from the park-and-ride into town at 6AM.

Or in reality they are producing things that people actually want to buy, and people are buying them in vast numbers. I don't believe companies are somehow capable of brainwashing people into buying things they don't want. They could perhaps do it once but not twice. I will also point out that the very first iPad that we have still works and was able to run the most modern software until the very last release of the OS. It is still perfectly functional and usable as it was when we bought it.

They aren't brainwashing people Clockwork Orange style, they've just figured out how to do it by shaming people into buying crap they don't need via societal pressure. Nothing new there. Interesting about the iPad, though the steep upfront cost again will make it less viable for low-income people.

I would disagree with that entirely. You can attach a bluetooth keyboard to them and work perfectly well for writing documents...

Which, from a quick Google search appear to be $70 for the apple version. Not exactly cheap, but point taken.

They are very capable for movie watching and gaming (in fact iOS devices are amongst the most widely used mobile gaming platforms available).

Wow. I still don't see the point in watching a movie on a 6 inch screen. I wouldn't even be able to tell what was happening.

We recently had an audits from a couple of companies and both auditors used and iPad as their sole form of note taking and writing up the final reports, when asked they said they didn't travel with a laptop any more as the iPad did everything they needed.

I've used the virtual keyboard on a couple of mobile devices, and unless they've drastically changed in the last few years, I'm surprised at this. The people in question must have tiny, tiny fingers.

I will agree that they are not user upgradable.

which goes back to my point about low-cost alternatives. There really don't seem to be any with mobile devices.

Not that I can see. You have already admitted that you can get a laptop for the same cost as a desktop, just that it will not perform quite as fast. Unless speed of applying for a job becomes an issue then I can't see it being a major problem. Another thing that the 'iThingy revolution' has brought is a drastic reduction in the cost of software. In the PC days software would cost 100's of pounds. Microsoft Office for example is still £100+ for even the most basic version. iPad apps on the other hand tend to be of the order of £0 to £10. Pages, for example, Apples work processor with Office compatability costs £13 for Mac and £7 on an iMac.

Speed of applying for a job can definitely be an issue when you're unemployed and have zero income. And, like I said, over here at least, K-12 classrooms and especially colleges have become increasingly computer-oriented. If you have a kid whose single parent has to work two or three jobs to pay bills, having the kid stay after school to use their computers is impossible. There are even some charities starting up whose sole purpose is to get computers for "underprivileged" kids.

I quite clearly didn't say I found poverty amusing. What I find amusing is being told by people that they are in poverty when they are sat at a computer they own in a house with electricity.

Back to my point about computers being a necessity (in America, at least). You have to own one. Also, at least in my state, your definition of poverty apparently only includes the homeless; having any utility cut off for non-payment is grounds for eviction in the state of Texas. If you don't have electricity, you're out, unless it's included in the rent. It's not like when I was a kid, or you. Penalties abound for low-income people over here, which makes it that much harder to get out of poverty. Which is why anything that disadvantages the poor any further pisses me off.

Actually we don't live in a country that provides free higher education. These days you have to get a loan to pay for your tuition and keep. I will admit that these loans are at a very low interest rate and that they are not repayable until you get a job, however, they are fully repayable. It's also worth pointing out that I have absolutely no qualifications for the job that I do. I have a sub-degree level qualification in Physics and none in computing. Where I am now I have go to through my own natural abilities. I will openly admit that I went to university for three years and that that got me the interview for my first job. I will also say that at the time I went it was paid for by a free state grant and that it included a little extra for living expenses.

Okay, the last part there explains my confusion; you used to be able to get a free education (with hard work, of course). I did not realize they had changed that. Over here, resumes are read by algorithmic programs now (to save time and money, ostensibly), and any reasonably good job discards people without some sort of degree. My grandpa worked his way up to $100 an hour at Shell oil in 1979 with no degree; now, he wouldn't make it past field supervisor.

I think the whole origin of our disagreement here is a matter of perspective, Ian; the UK and America are obviously running things quite a bit differently. I should have prefaced my statements with "in America..."

[McAvoy]

$100 an hour? Wtf? How?

[Tsukiyumi]

$100 an hour? Wtf? How?

Engineering, R&D, then teaching. Back when companies actually trained employees, that is.

When he was starting out, he actually broke in to the facility after hours to learn more about the seismic equipment and how to write programs.

Nowadays, he'd be shot...

[Reliant121]

I think a lot of the debate here is about the costs and requirements between the UK and the US. Over here, to build a computer from scratch that matches a prebuilt one, you usually end up spending MORE money. My mothers computer is an AMD Bulldozer Quad 3.0 with a relatively modern graphics card and 4gb RAM. To build the same system when it was new would have costed around £550 and the PC itself was £479. Upgrading is a different matter but every so often you need to replace the motherboard because the manufacturers make up new sockets and new configurations that are not compatible with old ones.

Similarly its actually quite possible to get a decent waged job over here without a degree; most of the management in the retail companies I have looked at prefer to "home grow" from the ground up, or take on college (17-19 year old) educated students which is soon become mandatory under recent law. Obviously a lot of jobs require degrees but its easy to attain a reasonable standard of living without one. As for uni education, it became paid for in 2006 with up to £3000 per annum and recently went up to £9,000 per annum. The government will pay for it in a loan, but you then have to pay it back through the tax system. It is certainly not free.

As for the ease of modern devices compared to computers; in some areas I get your point Tsuki. I've never been able to watch movies on small screens (back when I first got a portable DVD player right up to my current tablet) I just end up having a migraine and usually being sick. And gaming TO THE DEGREE OF A PC isn't possible for obvious reasons. But is gaming of some variety possible? Definitely; often quite in depth games, especially on iOS (android sees far more casual games than detailed ones). While document processing isn't necessarily as easy as a PC, its still reasonably viable for anything shorter than full dissertations. Spreadsheets are doable; my Nexus tablet is eminently capable of using spreadsheets using Kingston Office. User upgrades are an issue, yes, but thats little different to most laptops now. My last three laptops, two Acers and a Toshiba (two of which were full size 15/17") were completely untouchable save for unscrewing the damn thing and removing half of the solder to reach the components below the keypad.

I do not see the desktop computer dying out any time soon because they are still useful for gaming, media applications etc. But I can readily see an age, maybe 20 years down the line, when the desktop is irrelevant because a laptop is cheap enough and powerful enough to readily compete with a PC. Tablets are fast becoming more powerful than some computers now; the age of mobile connectivity is coming.

[IanKennedy]

They aren't brainwashing people Clockwork Orange style, they've just figured out how to do it by shaming people into buying crap they don't need via societal pressure. Nothing new there. Interesting about the iPad, though the steep upfront cost again will make it less viable for low-income people.

Sorry, I have to call bullshit on that. I wholly dislike the concept that people can do what they want and just blame it on societal pressure. People do what they want, and can afford to do. Anything else is just an excuse.

Which, from a quick Google search appear to be $70 for the apple version. Not exactly cheap, but point taken.

Other options are available, for example heres's a cheap knockoff for £13.

Wow. I still don't see the point in watching a movie on a 6 inch screen. I wouldn't even be able to tell what was happening.

iPad has a 10" screen, iPhone smaller. I've watched a movie on an iPhone before now. It's wasn't the best experience in the world but it filled a couple of hours on a rainy day when we had nothing else to do.

I've used the virtual keyboard on a couple of mobile devices, and unless they've drastically changed in the last few years, I'm surprised at this. The people in question must have tiny, tiny fingers.

No not at all. One was a 6'6" Dutch guy and the other a dumpy little American that probably weighed 250lbs. I will point out that the iPad has a 10" screen again, they keyboard is actually quite large. Not all iThingies are the same.

Speed of applying for a job can definitely be an issue when you're unemployed and have zero income. And, like I said, over here at least, K-12 classrooms and especially colleges have become increasingly computer-oriented. If you have a kid whose single parent has to work two or three jobs to pay bills, having the kid stay after school to use their computers is impossible. There are even some charities starting up whose sole purpose is to get computers for "underprivileged" kids.

Over here we have a social conscience and a 'welfare' system. If you are unemployed for a short time you get unemployment benefit after a while it switches to 'Social Security' which basically means you don't starve but can't afford to do anything else.

which goes back to my point about low-cost alternatives. There really don't seem to be any with mobile devices.

There are plenty of tablet type devices that cost an awful lot less than computers do. This for example is £120 a lot cheaper than the $200 computers you where talking about. It would certainly allow you to apply for jobs, work with email etc.

Back to my point about computers being a necessity (in America, at least). You have to own one. Also, at least in my state, your definition of poverty apparently only includes the homeless; having any utility cut off for non-payment is grounds for eviction in the state of Texas. If you don't have electricity, you're out, unless it's included in the rent. It's not like when I was a kid, or you. Penalties abound for low-income people over here, which makes it that much harder to get out of poverty. Which is why anything that disadvantages the poor any further pisses me off.

I very much doubt that you have a state law that requires landlords to evict people if their electricity is cut off. At least everything I've ever heard about your hatred of government intervention in any private enterprise makes it highly unlikely. My definition of poverty is not limited to the homeless and I can't see anything I've said that could lead you to that conclusion. We were definitely in poverty when we had a place to stay (at least for the time being) and little income provided by the state. We had a mortgage on a house, no electric and no phone at one point. Our gas was still connected as their is a law in the UK that says that they can't cut you off if it's your only way of cooking. We where about 2 years behind on the mortgage payments and in the process of being kicked out of the house.

That said I would certainly not agree that if your only problem is that you can't afford a computer then you qualify for being in poverty. I find it an utterly ridiculous statement. What next those who cannot afford a car are in poverty, after all you've just said that there's no public transport so they can't get to work.

Over here, resumes are read by algorithmic programs now (to save time and money, ostensibly)

I refuse to believe this of all but the largest of companies. Big multinationals may be doing that but I'm sure the local shops and businesses aren't.

[IanKennedy]

I think a lot of the debate here is about the costs and requirements between the UK and the US. Over here, to build a computer from scratch that matches a prebuilt one, you usually end up spending MORE money. My mothers computer is an AMD Bulldozer Quad 3.0 with a relatively modern graphics card and 4gb RAM. To build the same system when it was new would have costed around £550 and the PC itself was £479. Upgrading is a different matter but every so often you need to replace the motherboard because the manufacturers make up new sockets and new configurations that are not compatible with old ones.

Similarly its actually quite possible to get a decent waged job over here without a degree; most of the management in the retail companies I have looked at prefer to "home grow" from the ground up, or take on college (17-19 year old) educated students which is soon become mandatory under recent law. Obviously a lot of jobs require degrees but its easy to attain a reasonable standard of living without one. As for uni education, it became paid for in 2006 with up to £3000 per annum and recently went up to £9,000 per annum. The government will pay for it in a loan, but you then have to pay it back through the tax system. It is certainly not free.

As for the ease of modern devices compared to computers; in some areas I get your point Tsuki. I've never been able to watch movies on small screens (back when I first got a portable DVD player right up to my current tablet) I just end up having a migraine and usually being sick. And gaming TO THE DEGREE OF A PC isn't possible for obvious reasons. But is gaming of some variety possible? Definitely; often quite in depth games, especially on iOS (android sees far more casual games than detailed ones). While document processing isn't necessarily as easy as a PC, its still reasonably viable for anything shorter than full dissertations. Spreadsheets are doable; my Nexus tablet is eminently capable of using spreadsheets using Kingston Office. User upgrades are an issue, yes, but thats little different to most laptops now. My last three laptops, two Acers and a Toshiba (two of which were full size 15/17") were completely untouchable save for unscrewing the damn thing and removing half of the solder to reach the components below the keypad.

I do not see the desktop computer dying out any time soon because they are still useful for gaming, media applications etc. But I can readily see an age, maybe 20 years down the line, when the desktop is irrelevant because a laptop is cheap enough and powerful enough to readily compete with a PC. Tablets are fast becoming more powerful than some computers now; the age of mobile connectivity is coming.

There's no way it will take 20 years, things in computers more far faster than that. 20 year ago in computing was the stone age As I said I give it 10 years.

[Reliant121]

Fair point; I was going for a conservative estimate but failed to take into account just how far computers have come.