by GrahamKennedy » Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:04 am
I am for anything that gets more people or hardware into space. And there's definitely a market for businesses in launching satellites and stuff, without government subsidy.
But I honestly can't see that private industry would want to invest in manned space flight or deep space exploration as anything but a sideshow. Tourism for the obscenely wealthy may become tourism for the merely very wealthy, but there just aren't going to be holidays for the middle class in space anytime soon (soon being within, say, fifty years).
And what else is there? Mining asteroids sounds lovely, but is there really anything on the asteroids we need that we don't have here on Earth? Asteroids are mostly iron, aren't they? We're not exactly short of iron, and it costs about $120 per ton right here on Earth. Mining a ton from an asteroid and returning it to Earth would cost hundreds of millions, if not billions. Does anybody seriously believe that we're going to see the cost of spaceflight come down a millionfold anytime soon?
I hate to say it because I grew up on Heinlein's "Rolling Stones", where a family who grew up on the moon could buy their own rocket and fly off to the Mars colonies and then on to the asteroid belt community. I wish we could have that world, but sadly I think it will still be a dream for a good long time to come.
Give a man a fire, and you keep him warm for a day. SET a man on fire, and you will keep him warm for the rest of his life...