United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" mean?

In the real world
Post Reply
User avatar
Nutso
2 Star Admiral
2 Star Admiral
Posts: 9614
Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:58 pm

United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" mean?

Post by Nutso »

Does this really hurt Boris Johnson? Or Brexit? What will this entail for the political future of the U.K.? Where do you foresee the political landscape heading? Does this affect your voting choices in the future?
"Bible, Wrath of Khan, what's the difference?"
Stan - South Park
User avatar
IanKennedy
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 6155
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Oxford, UK
Contact:

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by IanKennedy »

Basically, we need to sack the lot of them and start fresh. They asked the people what they wanted and they said brexit. Parliament seems to have other ideas. We need a new general election and to see if we can get some one who will actually do what they are told. They seem to forget that they are there to represent the people and not their own personal agenda.

I find it completely insulting that the people complaining about Boris shutting down parliament are some how claiming this is an attack on democracy, when it's being done so that we get what the people decided should be done, ie to leave the EU, in a democratic vote. They want to overturn that and that's pretty undemocratic. The votes of 650 people should not overrule the votes of the 30+ million people that voted in the poll.

We keep having these petitions to try and stop stuff from happening. The largest one has only every reached 4.5m, with the latest getting to 1.4m. As I keep saying, when it gets to 15M let me know, that's how many people voted to get this done.
</rant>
email, ergo spam
User avatar
Nutso
2 Star Admiral
2 Star Admiral
Posts: 9614
Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:58 pm

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Nutso »

Thanks for your input, Ian. Your last paragraph was particularly illuminating and not something I've seen stated elsewhere.
"Bible, Wrath of Khan, what's the difference?"
Stan - South Park
User avatar
Captain Seafort
4 Star Admiral
4 Star Admiral
Posts: 15548
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:44 pm
Location: Blighty

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Captain Seafort »

IanKennedy wrote:<snip>
Have you got any plans to add a "like" button to the forum software? This deserves a few dozen.
Only two things are infinite - the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the universe: Albert Einstein.
User avatar
IanKennedy
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 6155
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Oxford, UK
Contact:

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by IanKennedy »

Sorry, I got it wrong. It's actually 17.4 million. My mistake...
email, ergo spam
RK_Striker_JK_5
3 Star Admiral
3 Star Admiral
Posts: 12986
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:27 am
Commendations: The Daystrom Award, Cochrane Medal of Excellence
Location: New Hampshire
Contact:

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by RK_Striker_JK_5 »

IanKennedy wrote:Sorry, I got it wrong. It's actually 17.4 million. My mistake...
Ian for Prime Minister! He can admit his mistakes!

Also,
IanKennedy wrote:Basically, we need to sack the lot of them and start fresh. They asked the people what they wanted and they said brexit. Parliament seems to have other ideas. We need a new general election and to see if we can get some one who will actually do what they are told. They seem to forget that they are there to represent the people and not their own personal agenda.

I find it completely insulting that the people complaining about Boris shutting down parliament are some how claiming this is an attack on democracy, when it's being done so that we get what the people decided should be done, ie to leave the EU, in a democratic vote. They want to overturn that and that's pretty undemocratic. The votes of 650 people should not overrule the votes of the 30+ million people that voted in the poll.

We keep having these petitions to try and stop stuff from happening. The largest one has only every reached 4.5m, with the latest getting to 1.4m. As I keep saying, when it gets to 15M let me know, that's how many people voted to get this done.
</rant>
I second Seafort's wish for a 'like' button.
User avatar
Reliant121
3 Star Admiral
3 Star Admiral
Posts: 12263
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:00 pm

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Reliant121 »

I have been away far too long :lol:

In truth I highly doubt even most Brits could tell you what on earth is going to happen in the future. We don't know!

I appreciate the spirit of Ian's point though I take exception to a few points (IE, the breaking of spending rules etc, the rampant dishonesty of politicians on both sides of the debate); I don't mind disclosing I was and remain an ardent remainer so there may be a degree of bias. :lol:

Doesn't really change how I'll vote in future, I tend to swing through various centre left to left parties. I wouldn't vote conservative even if my life depended on it.
User avatar
Graham Kennedy
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 11561
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Banbury, UK
Contact:

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Graham Kennedy »

Well we're having an election now. So that should be fun.
Give a man a fire, and you keep him warm for a day. SET a man on fire, and you will keep him warm for the rest of his life...
User avatar
McAvoy
Rear Admiral
Rear Admiral
Posts: 6225
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:39 am
Location: East Windsor, NJ

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by McAvoy »

I am trying to figure this out. How is this any different from I guess you could call a rebellion against Trump that is happening now?

I mean the amount of shit that's been going on with Trump and the Democratic party, I am just curious on how you guys are handling your own version.
"Don't underestimate the power of technobabble: the Federation can win anything with the sheer force of bullshit"
User avatar
Graham Kennedy
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 11561
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Banbury, UK
Contact:

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Graham Kennedy »

So the way the UK system works is that there isn't the same kind of separation between the Prime Minister and the administration on one side and the House on the other. That's not to say that the two things are identical here, but the way you become Prime Minister in the first place is to have an overall majority of MPs in the house, such that even if all other parties combine and vote against you, you still win.

But that only holds if all of your MPs vote for you. And technically, they don't have to - an MP can vote however they like. There can be consequences if you vote against the party, but nobody can stop you. If the PM's party has a nice big majority then having some rebel MPs doesn't matter much - Thatcher had majorities of 140+ in one term so even if sixty of her own MPs voted against her it didn't actually matter, she still won. In such a situation a PM can - and Thatcher did - pretty much do whatever they like. Thatcher had rebellions all the time, but they didn't matter because they were never big enough to challenge her.

But in the last election May lost her overall majority. She roped the DUP, a small party in Northern Ireland with 10 MPs, in to support her, and that gave her a very narrow majority. But even then, her majority was so tiny that if even three or four of her MPs rebelled and voted against her, she lost. Boris is, if anything, even weaker than that.

The big sticking point in all this is the "Irish Backstop". Basically the deal that May negotiated says that after Brexit, the Irish border will remain open and free for goods and people to cross, just like any border between EU countries is. But it says that this will only last for a transition period of several years, during which the two sides will negotiate a post-EU trade deal that will then keep the border open in perpetuity. Buuuuuut... if the two sides can't agree that deal, then in 2022 the backstop kicks in and the Northern/Southern border becomes like any other international border, with checkpoints and customs and whatnot.

This is so controversial because politics in Northern Ireland is almost wholly dictated by whether one regards NI as an integral part of the UK or not. We literally had decades of terrorism and civil strife over this issue. The DUP are unionists, that is people who regard Northern Ireland as just another part of the UK, and they strenuously object to any deal that treats NI as a special case separate from the rest of the UK. So they won't vote for the deal under any circumstances. A number of MPs from other parties share the concern, and also refuse to vote for it for that reason. And of course the opposition parties vote against it because, well, they're the opposition and voting against the government is pretty much in the job description.

And given that May (and now Boris) don't have a majority, that means they can't get the deal through.

So the situation we're in is that the EU will only offer deals that have the backstop. Some MPs seem to think that if the UK is "tough" in negotiations, the EU will cave and give us everything we want. Needless to say, negotiations really don't work that way. Especially when we need the EU more than the EU needs us, in trade terms.

So every deal on offer has the backstop. But parliament won't vote for any deal that has the backstop. Simultaneously, parliament won't allow us to exit the EU without a deal.

The shenanigans surrounding this have been ridiculous. Just to name a few :

- Boris was elected leader on the basis that he won't ask for an extension to allow a better deal to be negotiated under any circumstances.
- Parliament then threatened to pass legislation requiring him by law to ask for an extension anyway. The law even contained the precise wording of the letter he had to send.
- Boris then shut down Parliament to stop it voting against him.
- Our version of the supreme court then said this was illegal, and parliament was re-opened.
- The deadline arrived and Boris sent his letter. But he didn't sign it. And then he had another letter sent that said he didn't actually want an extension after all.
- The EU negotiators decided to ignore letter number 2, accept the unsigned letter as valid, and granted another extension anyway.

Now they've decided to vote for a new election. Boris is calculating that he can run on "vote for me if you want Brexit", get a big enough majority, and push his deal through against all opposition and any Tory rebellion. But that's what May thought would happen in the last election. And in fairness, the polls backed her up when she called the election, indicating she'd have a gigantic majority. She then had one of the worst election campaigns ever, and lost big.

Corbyn, meanwhile, is calculating that Boris will lose and Labour will either get an overall majority, or at least enough seats to make a coalition government of his own. Then he can renegotiate the deal and get that through.

Of course, it might also happen that the numbers come back much as they are now and the election will leave the situation exactly the same. Nobody has a clue what would happen next.
Give a man a fire, and you keep him warm for a day. SET a man on fire, and you will keep him warm for the rest of his life...
User avatar
Reliant121
3 Star Admiral
3 Star Admiral
Posts: 12263
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:00 pm

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Reliant121 »

Add in additional complications in that unlike in the states, we have several 'smaller' parties that could potentially be king makers depending how votes pass. The third largest party in parliament is the Scottish National Party who, beyond one or two seats, represent the entirely of Scotland. Scotland in the referendum voted reasonably heavily in favour of Remaining in the EU and so the SNP have been very unashamedly honest that they want nothing more than to frustrate the brexit process so it doesn't happen. That, or should they be forced to leave the EU with the UK, they will campaign for Scotland to hold another vote on leaving the Union and becoming their own country again. Wales have their own version called Plaid Cymru that doesn't have so much widespread support but votes broadly in the same way as the SNP).

Votes fluctuate up and down for the Liberal Democrats. They occupy the traditional 'centre field' spot in politics but haven't been able to challenge for true leadership in their own right for decades. They formed a coalition government in 2010 with the Conservatives - many voters now completely distrust them for the policies implemented by that government that often were in opposition on Lib Dem policy. The Lib Dems are also pro european and ultimately want to remain, or at the very least have a second referendum now the likely consequences of leaving the EU are that much more apparent.

Then there's the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage. Politically probably the closest party we have to the GUP I would have thought (others may or may not disagree) their platform is simple: Leave the EU without any form of withdrawal agreement and go global. Yesterday Farage gave the government an ultimatum that they must drop the withdrawal agreement or he will contest 500 seats across the country (which would be by far the largest number of candidates the Brexit Party, or it's previous incarnation UKIP, has ever put forward). This risks splitting the vote in conservative areas in the south and labour areas in the north depending on how disenfranchised the voter is feeling. Pro-Remain parties are generally relatively good at "tactical voting" agreements whereby various candidates stand aside for the remain candidate with the best chance of success, hoping they have the strength to beat the duopoly of Labour/Conservatives.

Plus Northern Ireland will be a fascinating watch. Their political votes for Parliamant run across two broad lines - Unionist and Republican. However the main republican party, Sinn Fein, refuse to take their seats. Taking their seat in parliament would mean endorsing UK governance in Northern Ireland when they believe NI should be a part of the Republic of Ireland. The more non-sitting Sinn Fein there are the less the DUP can influence things as they have done so far. Plus there's the SLDP and UUP and all sorts floating about in NI.

Even MORE interest comes in that both the big two have highly controversial leaders. BoJo certainly divides opinion and several of his cabinet choices, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel come to mind, are just as bad. If they run a bad campaign they could be in trouble. Similarly Jeremy Corbyn is just as divisive. There are many hard line labour supporters who simply will not give him the time of day as he is extremely left field, even for us, but the membership of the party who elect their leader overwhelmingly support him.
User avatar
McAvoy
Rear Admiral
Rear Admiral
Posts: 6225
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:39 am
Location: East Windsor, NJ

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by McAvoy »

I feel like I am going to need a children's book on UK politics to understand all of that.
"Don't underestimate the power of technobabble: the Federation can win anything with the sheer force of bullshit"
AlexMcpherson79
Lieutenant
Lieutenant
Posts: 458
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:43 pm
Location: Manchester, United Kingdom.

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by AlexMcpherson79 »

I feel like this is brought on by the fact that they dont teach politics in school.

... I have no idea what left and right means. I dont know the policies of the various parties. Hell that post told me more about what parties there are than I ever paid attention to in the news because the news was so frustrating that I just didn't bother. And unfortunately, that's probably the case with many voters - we're too busy raising families and/or working long hours to barely scrape by, what do we care about some distant country we're allegedly a member of?

... So said someone who didn't know the EU is a political organization but owns no land and only dreams about being like the united states of America. I mean, look at the 'US' of america - It's not really a country. I look at the states as individual countries, complete with their own differeing laws regarding loads of things (like age laws, marriage, abortion, et cetera), there's lots of power that a 'state government' holds at the state level, but then there's stuff they "gave up" to the 'US government'.

I think the EU wants to be the United Countries of Europe. It's even basically the name: European, Union. The US could rebrand as "American Union" and still technically be accurate to what it is. Not all countries of Europe, the continent, is part of the EU. Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, they're all in America. But they're not member states of the "United States of America". Alaska was even russian! (... when, I don't know). Maybe Trump should be calling for Mexico to be brought in as the 51st.

But anyway.

You ask me names of prime ministers, and I'll give: Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Tony Blair, David Cameron.
respectively: WW2, She's basically famous for riots, he was in power when I was a kid, he's the one who basically sent an army into another country to invade based on lies he knew were lies and wasn't arrested for it, and he called for the 'should Britain leave the EU' vote to answer once and for all that no, the country doesn't want to leave (except it did by 2%) and decided to quit and let someone else go through something he didn't agree with (fair enough, you shouldn't really want a Remainer to negotiate the exit. And I refuse to call it bre... bre... I cna't even say it its a stupid name. though I did vote exit.)
User avatar
Reliant121
3 Star Admiral
3 Star Admiral
Posts: 12263
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:00 pm

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by Reliant121 »

We haven't even touched on my favourite bug bear of all: The House of Lords :lol:
AlexMcpherson79
Lieutenant
Lieutenant
Posts: 458
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:43 pm
Location: Manchester, United Kingdom.

Re: United Kingdom Members: What does the Tory 'rebellion" m

Post by AlexMcpherson79 »

They should go the way of the House of Lannister... Wait.. the house of Lannister isn't real?!
Post Reply