General UK Election thread

[Graham Kennedy]

I know we have one about May calling the election, but I figured it would be a good idea to have a general thread for election news, poll results, etc.

To kick things off... Labour promise to create four new bank holidays.

(For furriners who may not know, a "bank" holiday is just a public holiday.)

I get the argument that we have fewer public holidays than most in Europe but with all the serious economic stuff going down, to me this rings of "bread and circuses" and indicates a less than credible Labour party. Can't say I am impressed.

[RK_Striker_JK_5]

Yeah, four more bank holidays seems like a bit of flash with little substance. If any.

[Bryan Moore]

I'll admit I don't know much of what goes on over there these days... now that I'm not teaching, my motivation to keep up with foreign affairs has suffered. Just how right of middle is the conservative group these days?

[Teaos]

Labor is crashing and burning so hard, I am surprised the libdems arent polling better.

[IanKennedy]

The LibDems have only just recently come out of a coalition with the Conservatives that lasted an entire government term. They went into it saying they where going to temper the policies, but in practice achieve almost nothing. It lost them a lot of credibility with lots of people.

[IanKennedy]

I'll admit I don't know much of what goes on over there these days... now that I'm not teaching, my motivation to keep up with foreign affairs has suffered. Just how right of middle is the conservative group these days?

Not that much at all and Labour's current leader is very left of centre.

[Graham Kennedy]

The LibDems have only just recently come out of a coalition with the Conservatives that lasted an entire government term. They went into it saying they where going to temper the policies, but in practice achieve almost nothing. It lost them a lot of credibility with lots of people.

Most especially, one of their key promises going into the election was that they would oppose any rise in university tuition fees. They did this because a whole lot of lib dem voters are young people - a lot of them university students. That's also where they got a lot of their manpower from, lots of students volunteering to go door to door and distribute leaflets during election time.

And if that doesn't sound like a big deal, bear in mind that outside of a very small number of "party political broadcasts" which almost nobody watches, political advertising is illegal in this country. You get politicians giving interviews on the news and such, but sending people door to door, putting up billboards, and posting flyers through doors are THE main ways a party has to campaign.

And in coalition, the Lib Dems voted for increased tuition fees.

It was an insane, suicidal thing for them to do. Nothing could be more calculated to enrage their own base. In the election they lost 39 of their 48 seats, including 10 out of 11 in Scotland. They cut their own throats, and it's going to be a big question of this election whether people have forgiven them or not.

[Graham Kennedy]

I'll admit I don't know much of what goes on over there these days... now that I'm not teaching, my motivation to keep up with foreign affairs has suffered. Just how right of middle is the conservative group these days?

I guess it depends on your standards. The left love to say the Tories are super right wing now. The whole country certainly has moved to the right with Thatcher, and that was cemented by Blair. But we still have a national health service, for instance, which is something Obama couldn't manage in the US. Gay marriage, supported by the Tories. Abortion, supported by the Tories. Arguably our Tories are left of your Democrats in many respects.

[IanKennedy]

One could say that the Conservatives are the UK equivalent of the Democrats, and that we have no equivalent of the Republicans. Equally, the Labour party is something you don't have. Completely Socialist, at least in the past. Blair and 'New Labour' shifted them towards the centre (or beyond) and the their new leader is pulling them back to the left.

[Graham Kennedy]

So after prevaricating on the issue for a while, Tim Farron has finally said that he doesn't think gay sex is a sin.

Previous comments seemed to imply that he took the "gays aren't inherently evil but gay sex is sinful" stance. He danced around anything definitive despite being asked repeatedly.

Interesting that being in support of gays and gay rights is pretty much a given in British politics these days. In fact it's more or less one of those things that you have to be in favour of or you won't be in politics for long.

[Teaos]

Almost every right wing party in 1st world countires are left of the democrates in The states.

[Graham Kennedy]

One more on the gays... a Conservative MP is stepping down after he commented that gays were bad and wrong. He said it was time for "a new generation" to take over after his 16 years in Parliament. This after affirming that he would carry on only ten days ago after recovering from illness.

I can respect this, actually. He has his beliefs, clearly he recognises that they're not acceptable to the public any more, so he steps aside. Not like some, who had a Damascan-style conversion for political convenience!

[Graham Kennedy]

Interesting article on "where Jeremy Corbyn went wrong".

Notably, he's allowed himself to largely be defined by his enemies - during his first weeks in office he made a number of gaffes that played right into the traditional "weak on defence, weak on the economy" stereotype of the left.

Notably, Corbyn has :

1) Said he would never use a nuclear weapon under any circumstances.

Now I don't actually fault him for not wanting to do this, or even deciding not to do it. But SAYING it out loud is an epic failure of common sense. For one, Labour party policy is overwhelmingly to spend the tens of billions of pounds needed to replace the current submarine system with a new one. Corbyn's announcement means that this money, if spent, is wasted. He may as well have announced that he planed to make a giant pile of money and set it on fire, like the Joker in Dark Knight.

2) His close ally and shadow Chancellor quoted Chairman Mao in the commons. And pulled a copy of his little red book out of his pocket to back up the point. Yes, seriously.

3) Questioned whether the police should shoot to kill in the immediate aftermath of the Paris attacks.

4) Has suggested NATO was to blame for Russia invading the Crimea.

5) Suggested that if Labour do build the replacement nuclear missile submarines, they should sail around without any nuclear missiles on them.

6) Said that Bin Laden should have been arrested, and that his death was a tragedy.

7) Has said that the UK needs to have "discussion" with Argentina over the Falkland Islands.

One interesting point I hadn't considered - virtually no Labour MPs believe that Corbyn is going to be the leader of the Labour party after this election, let alone Prime Minister. As a result, he has very little power within his own party - because a good deal of that power comes from the promise of office. "Swing your supporters behind me and I'll make you the next...." is how a leader gets support from his senior MPs. But nobody believes Corbyn has those things to offer to them, so nobody listens.

[Reliant121]

The distinct absence of any centrist labour MPs in the public eye, Like Yvette Cooper or Andy Burnham, suggests they have pretty much decided to allow Corbyn et all to hang themselves on their inevitable election failure.

[Graham Kennedy]

Interestingly, the local elections happened on Thursday. Whilst they aren't necessarily a guide to how the general will go, they are certainly an indicator.

Essentially, UKIP collapsed and Labour slumped behind the Tories, even in Scotland. Out of 2370 seats, the Tories gained 558 - the only major party to increase their seat total. Labour, lost 320 councillors while UKIP lost 114.

Interestingly, polls had forecast the Lib Dems to gain 100 seats - instead they lost 31. This does not bode well for any sort of recovery in the general election!

The conservatives continue to poll with a 15-19% lead over Labour. The latest forecast shows May returning with a 96 seat lead.

On a personal note, Farron came to Oxford the other day and was harangued by a voter :

It's funny to me because that shop they're in front of, the Sue Ryder shop? That's a charity shop I worked at for a few days a year or so ago! I used to park my car right where they're filming.