Brexit

[IanKennedy]

I am all for democracy......but I am not sure you should let something THAT important, with consequences even exptert cannot really forsee at the moment, go to a direct vote, simply because - I'll be blunt here - you can't have idiots voting on such an issue. Now I am not saying everyone voting for leaving is an idiot, but appaerently one of the top google-searches after the brexit in the UK was "what is the EU"......

Personally...I find the current rise in nationalism very worrying....

Frankly I find that pretty insulting. It reads as "If you want out of Europe they you must be an idiot, or some sort of Nazi". Well I can confirm that I am nether.

I would love to see a reference for that claim of the top google search. I find it pretty impossible to believe that is reduced the search for porn to any great extent. It sounds like the kind of crap our news papers make up. They're always inventing stories about Europe. For example we had news paper stories about the EU banning straight bananas, because they weren't true bananas, and that wasn't the most looney story ever invented (Source)

[Teaos]

The google thing doenst surprise me. I googled that and I live in the EU for most of the year. See I was looking for more details, also looking for article 50, the progressive stages of the union ect.

As a non Brit, I can mostly support what they are doing and fully understand the ideals behind it. While the EU is only kinda sorta corrupt now, it is getting more so with each year. So better to pull out now than latter when it will be even worse.

What no one is talking about, is the fact that the UK didnt just leave the EU, the EU left the UK.

The UK had several demands it wanted in some form, most if not all of them very reasonably and shared by a HUGE amount of people in the EU.

The EU basically told them to go fuck themselves, called their bluff and lost.

I hope the EU falls, I hope between Greece, Ukraine and Catalonia, we see it implode.

Then it can be remade again, properly.

As it was the tried to build a building by starting with 4 picture hooks, a bathroom sink and half a roof and have slowly tried to build the rest around it.

What they need is to build from the ground up.

[Graham Kennedy]

Okay, here is my prediction. Let's check back in the future and see how I did...

This referendum will ultimately be ignored.

The UK will NOT exit the EU.

I don't know how, but some pretext will be manufactured in order to ignore the vote. Or possibly there will be a second referendum.

I base this on various reactions. The Brexit leaders have been very, very quiet since this result - I literally haven't seen Farage or Boris on TV once. Stories are starting to emerge that Boris and many of the other Brexit Tories had no expectation whatever of winning, and are completely stunned by the victory and at a loss for what to actually do next. Especially as we're looking at, potentially, the loss of both Scotland and Northern Ireland from the UK just a year or two since we thought we'd got that sorted for a long time.

In particular, Cameron has seriously wrong-footed his opponents. It's been generally assumed that Cameron would be the one to "push the button" and activate Article 50, the formal request to leave, and that he would then at least begin the negotiations. Instead he's announced that he's going to coast for a couple of months whilst a successor is found, then quit and let whoever that is begin the process on their own timetable. Essentially he's looked at the resulting mess and said "Sorry, not my mess, not my problem".

This leaves whoever his successor is to deal with all the negative publicity... and take all the blame. And nobody on the Brexit side wants to take up that poisoned chalice, thank you very much.

And bear in mind, referendums (referenda?) are not legally binding in the UK. There's no constitutional rule preventing parliament from simply ignoring it.

So yeah. My bet is that there will be a mad scramble for the next few weeks or months. And then some pretext will be found to simply pretend this never happened. And that will be that.

Check back in six months, say, and we will see.

[Reliant121]

I am beginning to agree with you as time passes. Lord Heseltine wrote a piece for the Guardian at some point suggesting at around 350 members of parliament have already voiced their discontent with leaving europe so they sit in a truly precarious position; Represent their electorate (staunchly divided though it is) and approve a motion to trigger article 50 or follow what they consider to be the best interests of the nation and vote it down. The threat of Scotland leaving the Union also must loom over their heads...

[Captain Seafort]

This referendum will ultimately be ignored.

The UK will NOT exit the EU.

I don't know how, but some pretext will be manufactured in order to ignore the vote. Or possibly there will be a second referendum.

That would be a body-blow to British democracy. It would effectively be MPs telling the people who put them there "we don't give a fuck what you plebs think", especially given the number of times leaders of all parties (with the exception of that illiberal, anti-democratic little shit Farron) have explicitly said "the people have spoken, our job now is to implement their instruction".

[Graham Kennedy]

That would be a body-blow to British democracy. It would effectively be MPs telling the people who put them there "we don't give a fuck what you plebs think", especially given the number of times leaders of all parties (with the exception of that illiberal, anti-democratic little shit Farron) have explicitly said "the people have spoken, our job now is to implement their instruction".

Yes it would be. But I think they're going to do it anyway.

They do have the right to do so, legally.

[Captain Seafort]

Yes it would be. But I think they're going to do it anyway.

I don't. None of them got into Parliament by being stupid.

They do have the right to do so, legally.

Legally, HM can sack the lot of them. I think its possible that she might, if they pull the sort of stupid stunt you're suggesting they will.

And speaking of Brexit.

[Teaos]

Well you only have a population 200 times greater than them and their part time dentist manager.

[sunnyside]

I'm hoping the democrats take note of this and reign in their official stance of ignoring immigration laws to get more of them before we end up with president Trump.

I've never been even slightly loyal to the concept of my nation anyway

I think that's part of the stereotype of your generation and pro-immigration voters that others, who aren't dead yet, are hoping to get a handle on with the Brexit.

I wonder if any country does a good job of managing to have both cosmopolitanism and patriotism.

I think its possible that she might, if they pull the sort of stupid stunt you're suggesting they will.

Another leave voter?

[IanKennedy]

That would be a body-blow to British democracy. It would effectively be MPs telling the people who put them there "we don't give a fuck what you plebs think", especially given the number of times leaders of all parties (with the exception of that illiberal, anti-democratic little shit Farron) have explicitly said "the people have spoken, our job now is to implement their instruction".

Yes it would be. But I think they're going to do it anyway.

They do have the right to do so, legally.

It would be an incredibly stupid thing for them to do, if they ever wish to be elected again. I've only seen one sitting MP say that they should just vote it down. He was a back bencher, an MP with no extra responsibilities such as cabinet or shadow cabinet, for a constituency that voted remain. Every other one I've seen is saying "the people have spoken and we must do our best to make it work".

[Graham Kennedy]

I wonder how the vote tallies on a constituency basis? Meaning, if every MP voted the way their constituents voted, would it be leave or remain overall? Hmmm...

[Teaos]

Leave by a mile. Basically Stay was London, Bermingham and a few scattered areas. Now populations wise they are huge, but in terms of counties and geographical area, leave won by a huge margin.

[Graham Kennedy]

So here's how the legality stacks up according to what I've read.

The Prime Minister generally acts under the "Royal Perogative", that is the power of the British monarch. That power is delegated to the Prime Minister, since the Monarch is apolitical nowadays. So if there is some disaster and the PM sends emergency relief, or orders the Navy to send a ship to help, he's using the Royal Perogative to do so.

However, the Sovereignty of Parliament is the ultimate constitutional authority. The PM cannot act in a way that contravene's Parliament's authority - it's just that Parliament doesn't generally meddle in foreign affairs all that much, so they're not going to be passing laws saying you can't send that emergency disaster relief somewhere or anything.

However, the laws concerning membership of the European Union are acts of Parliament. Therefore, the legal argument goes, the Prime Minister actually cannot formally invoke Article 50 on his own authority under the Royal Perogative, because that would be a case of him overriding parliament. Which he can't do.

So what he has to do is put a bill before Parliament authorising withdrawal from the EU, and with that in hand he can go ring the Article 50 bell legally.

The thing is... what if that bill is voted down?

And it could be. The large majority of MPs are pro Remain. The SNP and Northern Ireland folks will certainly vote against. Labour may vote against. If they all did, that would mean only 10 or so Tory MPs would need to rebel against the government, and it would be voted down.

And if the PM allowed a free vote on the issue in which MPs could vote their conscience, we may well see just that happen.

And the current leading candidate for PM is Theresa May... who was a Remain campaigner. She could justifiably make it a free vote, and then just say "Parliament has voted; not my fault" afterwards.

The big questions would be :

1) How many MPs would vote for Brexit just on the basis that they had a responsibility to follow the mandate of the people?

2) If it was voted down, just how much backlash would there be from the people at the next elections? Remember, the next elections may not be for four more years. That's a long, long time for a backlash to die out. (And who would they backlash against, if most of the main parties voted the same way? A massive shift to UKIP?!)

3) Would Theresa May perhaps think remaining in the EU was worth taking a drubbing at the polls, even being voted out of government?

Interesting times...

[sunnyside]

Odd that you'd have a "just for giggles" vote. In every case I can think of in the states, the legal angles had been sorted out by the time people are heading to the polls and the outcome of the vote determines the outcome of whatever it was.

[Graham Kennedy]

One might almost suspect that this whole referendum really wasn't thought out too well in advance.