The Final Countdown

[Lt. Staplic]

I know we've had a similar discussion about this movie before, but I have a slight twist on it. For those of you that don't remember here's the basics:

1980's USS Nimitz gets transported back to Dec 6, 1941. Realizing where they are and what's about to happen there's a general disagreement about weather to act and prevent the destruction of Pearl Harbor, or to stay out of it and let history unfold. The Captain decides that his orders are to defend the United States against any attack past, present, or future so it's decided that when the Japanese launch their attack the Nimitz will defend Pearl Harbor. In the movie just as they're launching their planes the time portal reappears and sucks them all back into the 1980's leaving history to play out as it had already done.

My question stems from a slightly altered ending:

As the Japanese launch Yelland moves to take them out, which obviously he could do no problem. The battle is quick and decisive and at this point the portal shows up and takes him back to the 80's. What future would he see. I'm assuming that the US would be left with no idea about what they just avoided, and thus no one knows that the Japanese tried to attack, nor that they were defeated. Similarly the Japanese government will have no idea what happened, all they'll know is that the attack was launched and then complete silence, and the US isn't declaring war.

What happens now?

Do the Japanese continue to expand and fight after loosing a large portion of their fleet mysteriously (and seemingly with absolutely no losses inflicted on the enemy). Or do they pull back to hold onto what they've got.

Without Pearl Harbor or any of the other attacks by the Japanese on US forces can FDR find a way to get the US into WWII or does it have to stick to it's Lend-Leasing as the only support.

Suppose the US doesn't get involved, how long does Britain/Russia hold out against the Germans/do they win anyway with it simply taking longer.

If Hitler conquers Britain does he stop with Europe or would he have launched an attack on North America?

[Captain Seafort]

I'm assuming that the US would be left with no idea about what they just avoided, and thus no one knows that the Japanese tried to attack, nor that they were defeated. Similarly the Japanese government will have no idea what happened, all they'll know is that the attack was launched and then complete silence, and the US isn't declaring war.

You're treating the attack on Pearl in isolation, and ignoring the simultaneous attacks on the Philippines, Malaya and Hong Kong. With those attacks under way (and with Roosevelt looking for an excuse to join the war) there's no way the US wouldn't have declared war on Japan.

[Graham Kennedy]

And with the Japanese fleet sunk, and the US fleet untouched, the Pacific war would presumably a little shorter and easier for the Americans.

There's a book series on a similar premise, but an entire international fleet is transported from the near future into WWII - and remains there. Matters are complicated by the fact that there are ships from many different nations transported, IIRC including German and Japanese ones. Always had it on my "to read" list.

[McAvoy]

As far as the last point, no way in hell can Hitler even with a fully subdued France and GB (which is unlikely) using all the resources at his disposal and a fleet. Hitler will have no chance to even land anything more than a dingy on US soil.

[Tyyr]

Seafort is right. The attacks on Wake and the Phillipines would have brought the US into the war. Graham's also right that with the loss of those four carriers and their attendant escorts the Japanese navy would have been gutted. They'd have lost their four best carriers, all their best pilots and aircraft, the best naval tactician, the core of their battleship fleet. The war in the Pacific wouldn't have lasted much past 1943, except... Japan itself. Given how fast the war would have progressed we would not have had nukes by the time we were knocking on Tokyo's door. The end result being we would have gotten caught up in a conventional invasion.

The Germans were fucked the moment Hitler started to subdivide his forces in Russia. If he'd stayed focused on Moscow and the Caucus oil fields he could have won. With the rail head in Moscow down, the capital fallen, Stalin presumably withdrawn past the Urals, and the loss of their oil supply while the Germans gained one I think the Russians may have sued for peace. Instead he got distracted by Stalingrad, started to subdivide his forces and didn't make it on to either of the real prizes. That's what killed the Germans. The war in Europe was decided in Russia. The US's primary achievement in Europe was to hasten the downfall a bit and ensure that most of western Europe remained out of Russian hands after the war.

Germany itself had no way to deal with the Royal Fleet. The U-Boats were making a hash of things but wresting control of the Seas from the Royal Navy they were not. Without control of the seas around Great Britain an invasion was just a wet dream of Hitler's. It was never going to happen.

With the war in the Pacific going quicker and easier because the Japanese Navy was neutered the bombing campaign in Germany might have picked up pace a bit but on the whole I don't think you'd have seen much change in the European theater. You might have seen an invasion of France earlier in 1944, spring rather than summer, but we wouldn't have invaded in the middle of winter, or right before winter and we wouldn't have been ready to go for an invasion in early 1943 I don't think.

So we land in Normandy in March 1944 instead of June. With three more months we might have been able to take Berlin and push the final dividing line between East and West farther East but I don't think you'd have seen a markedly different war in Europe.

[Teaos]

The only way Europe would have been different is if the invansion of France was delayed put off and thye were just holding a stalemate for a few years, either low key war or temp peace. But if the Germans got the A Bomb first, or even second, it would have changed everything.

[Graham Kennedy]

I've followed a lot of "what if" discussions regarding how Germany might have won the war, and essentially the consensus has always been that it's impossible for Germany to have ever defeated the US and/or Russia.

I agree with that myself, but I'm wondering just what would be Hitler's best case scenario. Say we go to early in the war; he invades Poland and conquers it, then invades France and conquers that. But suppose instead of fighting the Battle of Britain and then launching Barbarossa, Hitler just stopped and consolidated?

It seems unlikely that Britain could ever have launched an invasion of the mainland on it's own, certainly not against a Germany Army and air force that hadn't been bled by the Battle of Britain and the war with Russia. Even if Britain rejected any peace overtures indefinitely, what could it really do against a Nazi Europe? Launch bombing raids and raid shipping, but neither one is going to defeat the Nazis.

Then there's Russia. No friend of Hitler, obviously, but if Hitler had never invaded Russia, instead just setting up strong defensive lines and consolidating and building strength, would Russia have invaded Nazi Europe?

And then the big question... would the US still have declared war on Germany after Pearl, if Germany had remained fairly quiescent in the 18 months since Dunkirk?

What do you think? Could Germany have gone so far as the conquest of France and then stopped, and gotten the world to accept it eventually?

[Teaos]

Thats what I always imagined. Hitler gets all of western Europe, a good portion of Russia before, making piece of just letting the battered ramains of the east blow in the wind. And then sit and consolidate his power. He would probably continue pushing east sucking up the near east and then maybe further and further, but not in a massive war effort but as a gradual push. I doubt he would even try to take on Britain for years, not until their power had been well and truely built up. He wouldnt give a shit about America, and they wouldnt be in a position to attack them as well.

It would probably turn into another cold war but with the Third Reich in the place of Russia.

[Tyyr]

The only way Europe would have been different is if the invansion of France was delayed put off and thye were just holding a stalemate for a few years, either low key war or temp peace. But if the Germans got the A Bomb first, or even second, it would have changed everything.

The path the Germans were on for the nuclear bomb was not a good one. It could have worked, maybe, but they were going about it in an odd way, maybe because the Nazi's scared off all their best scientists to the US leaving them with the B team team to work on the bomb. The Brits knew about their efforts and worked pretty hard to keep them going no where. The Nazi's also never really went all in on it like the US did.

The Nazi's possessing the atomic bomb wouldn't have amounted to much either. The Germans had no reliable means to deploy it. First generation nukes were fucking heavy, about five tons for the first operational bombs. That's too big for the V1 or V2, which had 0.5 and 1 ton warheads respectively and given how reliable both were I wouldn't trust them with a valuable hard to replace nuke. Most of the German bomber fleet was what would be classified as medium or light bombers. Pre-war the Germans didn't buy much into the idea of strategic bombing and most of their aircraft were oriented to supporting ground forces. Consequently payloads were typically low, only about 2 to 3 tons and at max load they'd need either a ridiculously long airfield or rocket assist to get airborne. The He-177 could actually carry a five ton bomb if you could get one to take off without bursting into flames. Seriously, the thing makes the B-29's teething problems look like paltry. However even if you could get the airplane airborne and going actually getting to your target would be dicey. The Germans flying against the RAF would be vastly different from the Army Air Corps going at Japan.

Even if the Germans got the bomb (unlikely in any WW2 useful timeframe) they had no way to use it offensively. A delayed start to WWII would only ensure the US would have it much, much sooner in the conflict and I think some German city might have taken over from Hiroshima in the history books.

I've followed a lot of "what if" discussions regarding how Germany might have won the war, and essentially the consensus has always been that it's impossible for Germany to have ever defeated the US and/or Russia.

Defeated Russia in terms of forcing their unconditional surrender or total absorption? I agree. Forced Russia to a negotiated peace that left much of western Russia in German hands? I think that could have been done, but it would have required Hitler to stay the fuck out of it.

I agree with that myself, but I'm wondering just what would be Hitler's best case scenario. Say we go to early in the war; he invades Poland and conquers it, then invades France and conquers that. But suppose instead of fighting the Battle of Britain and then launching Barbarossa, Hitler just stopped and consolidated?

Britain couldn't launch an invasion solo. Hell, even with the US's help I don't know if it could be done. Even against the conscripts and second line troops we faced in Normandy if Hitler had released the Panzers to strike at the beachheads D-Day could be remembered completely differently. Against a Germany that doesn't have it's hands filled to the brim and more with the Russian Army? Unlikely. At the very least the butcher's bill would have been horrific. Then faced with fighting a wermacht in it's prime across France and the low countries? Again, the only reason that we had so much success in the west was because Russia had been kicking Germany's ass in the East for over a year, and a year before that of just grinding warfare.

However, if Hitler actually stopped at France and did nothing... I dunno if you could even get support to declare war on Germany. With Germany quiet for a year and a half and Japan having just attacked us how many people would be chomping at the bit to head to Europe? Even FDR who wanted to be fighting against the Nazi's, without them directly threatening Britain, where's the justification? How do you sell the American people, who'd just been attacked by someone else, to go declare war on someone who hasn't made an offensive move in eighteen months? Who's shown no interest in attacking your allies?

I doubt Russia would have invaded Nazi Europe. Stalin didn't like Hitler, but he didn't want a war with him either. So long as Hitler held up his end of the bargain I don't think they'd have done much but stare at each other over the boarder. While the Russians bled the Germans dry of manpower the Allied bombing efforts helped bleed the Luftwaffe white and did keep at least some German attention on the western front. All told if I was Stalin, with his army how it stood in mid 1942, I don't think I'd want to pick a fight with the Germans just for the hell of it.

What do you think? Could Germany have gone so far as the conquest of France and then stopped, and gotten the world to accept it eventually?

I think they could have. I don't think they have an unassailable position at that point, but I do think they have one that's tough enough to make it unappealing to try and force him out of it. Britain lacks the ability to force it's way onto the continent and if Germany really does stay quiet, no Battle of Britain, no U-Boats how do you maintain the rage and the drive to stay at war when you have no reasonable hope of being able to invade and do something about. How do you get the US to go to war with Germany after 18 quiet months (I assume Germany doesn't declare war on the US to make the Japanese happy but rather let the Japanese swing in the noose they made for themselves)? How do you go to war when even with your Britain as your ally and staging base you've got no real hope of being able to invade? How does Russia get its shit together long enough to contemplate invasion? Russia in the Stalinist era wasn't a monolithic entity but a bunch of loosely connected subgroups, none of whom really liked one another. Many Ukranians welcomed the Germans when they arrived until the Nazis started to be the utter pricks they were. How does Stalin get his shit together and modernize his army without the Germans helping things along? Doing it vs. a peaceful Germany and then invading... just because?

No, if the Germans had been happy with Poland and Western Europe I think they could have pulled it off. Prior to the start of the war vs. Russia they were looking pretty damn invincible.

[Captain Seafort]

The Germans were fucked the moment Hitler started to subdivide his forces in Russia.

The Germans were fucked the moment they invaded Russia. Hitler's micromanaging certainly sped up the defeat, but there was never any chance of them beating the Red Army - it was too big, Russia was too big, and it was well on the way to solving the problems the purges had caused thanks to the kick up the backside the Finns had given them in the Winter War.

The path the Germans were on for the nuclear bomb was not a good one. It could have worked, maybe, but they were going about it in an odd way, maybe because the Nazi's scared off all their best scientists to the US leaving them with the B team team to work on the bomb. The Brits knew about their efforts and worked pretty hard to keep them going no where. The Nazi's also never really went all in on it like the US did.

Aye. Even if you ignore the Manhattan Project, the Germans still had competition, and given their incompetence I think there's a good chance Tube Alloys would have beaten them to it.

A delayed start to WWII would only ensure the US would have it much, much sooner in the conflict and I think some German city might have taken over from Hiroshima in the history books.

That was plan A as it was, and had the end of the European war still been out of sight after Trinity then Dresden probably wouldn't have got off as lightly as it did.

No, if the Germans had been happy with Poland and Western Europe I think they could have pulled it off. Prior to the start of the war vs. Russia they were looking pretty damn invincible.

That's as good as saying "if the Nazis weren't the Nazis". Lebensraum was the central plank of the entire ideology.

[Teaos]

If I remember my History. Germany declared war on America after Pearl harbor, not the other way around.

[Graham Kennedy]

If I remember my History. Germany declared war on America after Pearl harbor, not the other way around.

So they did, thanks for the correction.

[Coalition]

I'm curious what the response would have been if Hitler had pulled:
"America is at war with Japan? Good. Let's declare war on Japan, and offer our submarine technology to the United States in exchange for them helping us negotiate a cease-fire with England and France."

Hitler would have been stabbing Japan in the back, but he would have gotten peace with Britain and allied Germany with the largest economy on the planet. It would have freed up German military and economic resources for dealing with the Soviet Union, giving Stalin a very interesting reaction.

A comparison between the Japanese wartime economy, and US Depression economy is here.

[RK_Striker_JK_5]

I'm curious what the response would have been if Hitler had pulled:
"America is at war with Japan? Good. Let's declare war on Japan, and offer our submarine technology to the United States in exchange for them helping us negotiate a cease-fire with England and France."

Hitler would have been stabbing Japan in the back, but he would have gotten peace with Britain and allied Germany with the largest economy on the planet. It would have freed up German military and economic resources for dealing with the Soviet Union, giving Stalin a very interesting reaction.

A comparison between the Japanese wartime economy, and US Depression economy is here.

God, every time I read that... Japan didn't lose the war at Midway. It lost it at Pearl Harbor.

[Captain Seafort]

God, every time I read that... Japan didn't lose the war at Midway. It lost it at Pearl Harbor.

I'd put it at the Mukden Incident. As soon as Japan started moving into China, possession of the oilfields of the Dutch East Indies became a strategic necessity, and there was no way to obtain them without starting a war with the US.