Suddenly Human

[Mikey]

It's not The Wounded - it's Journey's End. The fact that the Federation was giving up territory to the Cardies shows that at the very least they must have held their own.

No, the dialogue I referenced was definitely from "The Wounded." SG might have been referring to either one, and if it was "The Wounded" my analysis applies perfectly.

[Captain Seafort]

No, the dialogue I referenced was definitely from "The Wounded." SG might have been referring to either one, and if it was "The Wounded" my analysis applies perfectly.

I'm not talking about the line you were referencing, I'm talking about SG's comment - I'm pretty confident it was based on the Feds surrendering territory in JE.

[Mikey]

Perhaps. If so, it's easy for us to assume that the UFP's stance was based on taking a beating - but it is eminently possible that it was due to the UFP's conciliatory nature, as well.

[Mark]

But was the Federation giving up systems as in getting beaten back and forced to withdraw? Or just surrendering some systems to avoid more loss of life and end a conflict?

[Sionnach Glic]

If you're referring to the admiral's line from TNG: "The Wounded," I was watching it again last night - it's hardly clear whether the indication that the UFP lost or had heavy losses inflicted, or whether just the political climate in the UFP at the time made war a dangerous proposition.

I was speaking in general. Just how the Cardassians gained a victory (or at least an advantageous ceasefire) isn't really relevant - the fact that the UFP has been forced to the negotiating table during conflicts they should have easily won could prompt other minor powers to think that they too could hold off Starfleet, either because public opinion would force the UFP into concilatory negotiations or due to Starfleet's strategic ineptitude allowing them to hold off any attack.

There seem to be a couple of cases in the Federation's history where a weak power has won a victory over them in some kind of local arena... possibly because the Federation didn't have the guts to go beat them, Vietnam style, perhaps.

I think that's the most likely answer. Given the pacifistic nature of the UFP, I can easily see the public being against military actions in general unless there was a clear threat to them. Add in the possibility of a number of small-scale defeats due to Starfleet's lack of proper militarisation and strategic know-how at the time and I can easily see the public forcing the government to negotiate.

But was the Federation giving up systems as in getting beaten back and forced to withdraw? Or just surrendering some systems to avoid more loss of life and end a conflict?

AFAIK, the systems handed over to the Cardassians were the ones that were already along the border between the two powers. It's unlikely (though still quite possible) that the Cardassians managed to push the UFP back into their own turf. Though I can see a number of well-planned raids striking targets in Federation space.

[Captain Seafort]

Though I can see a number of well-planned raids striking targets in Federation space.

That's more than likely, it's utterly certain - that's what happened at Setlik III.

I think that's the most likely answer. Given the pacifistic nature of the UFP, I can easily see the public being against military actions in general unless there was a clear threat to them. Add in the possibility of a number of small-scale defeats due to Starfleet's lack of proper militarisation and strategic know-how at the time and I can easily see the public forcing the government to negotiate.

As I've said before, and probably will again, I think the most likely scenario is that the UFP could beat the Cardies easily in space, but on the ground the reverse was true. While we've never seen Cardassian ground forces in action, we've heard enough references to them and descriptions of them to conclude that a) they've got an army, b) that army has at least some of the requirements to be considered a competent force and c) they have practical combat experience, due to the Bajoran occupation and resistance.

The result would be that if the Cardies got enough of a foothold on a Federation planet to get substantial forces on the ground, the Feds would be unlikely to be able to dislodge them. Likewise, any counter-offensive to occupy Cardassian planets to deny them as staging areas for further attacks would probably be bloody failures. End result: the Cardassians would be unable to make serious headway, but neither would the Feds be able to push them back from the boarder, and so secure the outlying colonies from attack, without resorting to large-scale orbital bombardment.

[Mikey]

I agree with that last part. Any world on which the Cardies got a foothold would be remain in their hands, considering the inability of the Feds to prosecute a ground war and Starfleet's probable aversion to glassing a planet. With SF's space superiority, though, I still believe that much of the UFP's capitulations were due to their conciliatory nature rather than fear of the Cardie military machine.

[Captain Seafort]

With SF's space superiority, though, I still believe that much of the UFP's capitulations were due to their conciliatory nature rather than fear of the Cardie military machine.

I don't think it was due to any fear of the Cardies as a serious threat to the Federation as a whole, but to the Feds inability to win a decisive victory. Without that victory you had a stalemate, one in which the Feds were at a significant disadvantage as they'd suffer recurrences of Setlik III without being able to do much to prevent them. Even if 95% of Cardassian raiders were intercepted and either destroyed or driven off before reaching their targets, the Feds could still loose hundreds or thousands of people a year.

It was therefore in their interests to sign the treaty, even if it involved giving up territory to the Cardassians. The Cardassians, on the other hand, would be emphatically on the loosing side of the military balance, and would themselves see it in their interest to sacrifice outlying colonies to end the war and the hammering Starfleet was probably inflicting on their fleet. My argument isn't anything as stupid as to suggest that the war was a Cardassian victory, but to emphasise the point that neither were they defeated.

[Mikey]

Fair enough.

[Sionnach Glic]

Though I can see a number of well-planned raids striking targets in Federation space.

That's more than likely, it's utterly certain - that's what happened at Setlik III.

I think that's the most likely answer. Given the pacifistic nature of the UFP, I can easily see the public being against military actions in general unless there was a clear threat to them. Add in the possibility of a number of small-scale defeats due to Starfleet's lack of proper militarisation and strategic know-how at the time and I can easily see the public forcing the government to negotiate.

As I've said before, and probably will again, I think the most likely scenario is that the UFP could beat the Cardies easily in space, but on the ground the reverse was true. While we've never seen Cardassian ground forces in action, we've heard enough references to them and descriptions of them to conclude that a) they've got an army, b) that army has at least some of the requirements to be considered a competent force and c) they have practical combat experience, due to the Bajoran occupation and resistance.

The result would be that if the Cardies got enough of a foothold on a Federation planet to get substantial forces on the ground, the Feds would be unlikely to be able to dislodge them. Likewise, any counter-offensive to occupy Cardassian planets to deny them as staging areas for further attacks would probably be bloody failures. End result: the Cardassians would be unable to make serious headway, but neither would the Feds be able to push them back from the boarder, and so secure the outlying colonies from attack, without resorting to large-scale orbital bombardment.

Aye, excellent points.

WRT the Cardassian Army, I believe we also have references to at least some units being mechanised.

[Mikey]

Yes, also the only references I recall to an actual army.

[Captain Seafort]

WRT the Cardassian Army, I believe we also have references to at least some units being mechanised.

Indeed. There are even specific references to APCs being used by the Bajoran occupation forces.

[Sionnach Glic]

Aye, that's the refference I was thinking of.