ST:FC Nit

[Aaron]

I watched RedLetterMedia's FC review yesterday and as he's listing off the reasons why nothing makes any sense, the Phoenix taking off gets shown. And then it hit me:

If an attack by the Eastern Coalition is still a possibility, why did nothing happen when Cochrane fired off an ICBM?

Yeah, yeah, I know it wasn't really one but think about it. Missile tests are announced months in advance in RL so we don't accidentally kill each other. I find it rather odd that no one panicked after she launched.

[Deepcrush]

Considering that everyone there was shocked and in panic over the idea that anyone was still able to attack them when the Borg started shooting. Also add in that the Phoenix wasn't aimed at anyone. It just flew off into space and then landed right where it took off from.

No real danger there. "Sir! They've fired a warhead!" "At who?" "Umm, it looks like its at themselves sir." "Okay...... that's a new one."

[Tyyr]

Well isn't this supposed to be post WWIII when everything is still royally fucked? If someone said that the long range tracking capabilities of the groups was shot I wouldn't be surprised.

[Aaron]

Well isn't this supposed to be post WWIII when everything is still royally f***ed? If someone said that the long range tracking capabilities of the groups was shot.

It's supposed to be, though the dialogue in the film really rings hollow on that point. "600 million dead". Really? You had WWIII and only managed to kill 600 million?

[Deepcrush]

That all depends how you take it. WW3 wasn't the only war that cropped up. There were a number of smaller regional wars as well. Those regional wars were pretty nasty too. The euogeneics (fuck my spelling) war cost some 37 million. Then there was something that happened in Asia that Spock compared it to. So, even the 600 million on their own is a pretty heavy number to handle. WW2 was a pretty horrible war at 100 million (don't get pissy anyone, I know there are guesses all over the place I'm just rounding).

[Nutso]

Did they have satellites at this time? I can't recall.

[Deepcrush]

I'm guessing yes. No one seemed shocked at the idea of something over head, just that they were being fired on.

[Mikey]

Well isn't this supposed to be post WWIII when everything is still royally f***ed? If someone said that the long range tracking capabilities of the groups was shot.

Agreed. I mean, these guys were living in kwanset huts. The idea that they didn't have real-time launch tracking isn't a stretch to me.

[Tyyr]

...why the hell didn't I finish that sentence?

[McAvoy]

Maybe it was announced? Whatever is left of the governments probably wasn't worried about some experiment from some ragtag group of scientists trying to break the speed of light. Maybe they had an eye on them just on case the missile goes anywhere else but space.

600 million always seemed low for a nuclear war. Nuking China will kill more people not to mention US, Europe or Asia. Unless it was a smaller nuclear war. Like many of the missiles were shot down but many others still got through.

[RK_Striker_JK_5]

Maybe it was announced? Whatever is left of the governments probably wasn't worried about some experiment from some ragtag group of scientists trying to break the speed of light. Maybe they had an eye on them just on case the missile goes anywhere else but space.

600 million always seemed low for a nuclear war. Nuking China will kill more people not to mention US, Europe or Asia. Unless it was a smaller nuclear war. Like many of the missiles were shot down but many others still got through.

Maybe that was only the initial attack and more died later as civilization broke down?

[BigJKU316]

For the producers I always figured the 600 million was simply a plot issue. They had already established a date when Humanity took to the stars and joined the Federation, so a war where 3 billion people die and the rivers turn into battery acid simply did not leave enough time for humanity to recover and play the role they had cast it in.

In context I think you have to go on the assumption that this was a very limited nuclear exchange. It makes some sense if you accept the idea that the two main sides were the Eastern Coalition (Which Braga says is basically China) and then something like NATO with Russia either on the NATO side or sitting it out.

In that case what I would guess happened is that the ECON made an ill-advised first strike and attempted to take out the US ICBM's in the middle of the US. Otherwise it makes no sesne for there to be devestation in Montana as presented in FC. The US counter-strike then likely inflicted large scale damage on China, basically rendering it without a nuclear capability and inflicting heavy casualties in the process.

I would also guess the US and Europe had a limited ABM capability. Otherwise San Fransisco and Paris surviving as they did makes almost no sense unless you accept the idea that China launched a counter-force strike only and they really don't have the number of weapons they need to do that now, and likely won't in 2020-2030 which is the timeframe used in Trek for WWIII.

Still, you are looking at an exchange of several hundred warheads in this scenario. Not a small event, but not world ending either.

The one thing I do know is that the 600 million number does not work unless the US and Russia are on the same side, or at least indifferent to what the other is doing.

[Tyyr]

I think you can do fine with any sides you want to choose because that low a body count pretty much points to only counter-force not counter-value warfare. You have to keep it counter force because the moment any of the big three start popping off nukes at the other's city the long term death toll will rise quickly into the low billions. Remember, its not the initial blasts that are the real killers, though they are no slouches. The real killer in the long term is the significant social breakdown you're likely to see after any large scale nuclear exchange that targets civilian centers. In our highly specialized society once you break the tie between the specialized food producers and the 99% of the population that relies on them things go down hill fast.

[Sonic Glitch]

For the story I'm working on, I just assumed some of the missiles failed. Isn't it possible that missiles on both sides either failed to launch or warheads failed to detonate?

[BigJKU316]

For the story I'm working on, I just assumed some of the missiles failed. Isn't it possible that missiles on both sides either failed to launch or warheads failed to detonate?

Not on the level necessary to really keep the numbers down to that degree. Certainly some failure would be expected, more on the Russian side if they have not put a lot more effort into rebuilding their stuff before the button is pushed, but I would guess 60-80% would work as intended on the low end.

Also, my reasoning for saying the Russians and US could not be invovled is the level of radiation in Montana. Simply put the central US will not be habitable for a long time if the Russians launched a counter force attack. You would be talking a large number of weapons, over 3-500 depending on how many ICBM's are still in silos at that time, all of which would be set to detonate at ground level. That makes the radiation that much worse because it is mixed into all the dirt you start throwing around and stays around for a lot longer.

It makes more sense if it is the Chinese, who don't have the number of weapons to really do counter-force properly. If it were the Russians I just don't see the area we see in FC being liveable without extensive outside support that soon after the war.